Seite - 243 - in Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies

Energies2018,11, 1893 • adatabase (this is theslowestoption), so that retrievalcanbeveryquick. Sinceweplantodealwithmillionsofseriesof thousandstimesteps,binaryfilesseemedlikea goodcompromisebecause theycaneasilyfitondisk—andoftenalso inmemory.OurRpackageuses this format internally,althoughitallowstoinputdata inanyof thesethreeshapes. Ifwewerespeaking of billionsof series of amillion time stepsormore, thendistributeddatabaseswouldbe required. In thiscaseonewouldonlyhas tofill thedatabaseandtell theRpackagehowtoaccess time-series. ThecurrentversionismostlywritteninRusingtheparallelpackageforefficiency, [35].Apartial versionwritten fully in Cwas slightly faster, but not enough compared to the loss of code clarity. ThecurrentRversioncanhandle the25millionssamplesonanovernightcomputationoverastandard desktopworkstation—assumingthecurvescanbestoredandaccessedquickly.Our implementation is callediecclust isavailableasopensourcesoftware. 7. ForecastingFrenchElectricityDataset 7.1.DataPresentation Weworkon thedataprovidedbyEDFalsoused in [24]which is composedofbig customers equipped with smart meters. Unfortunately, this dataset is confidential and cannot be shared. Neverthelesswesuggest to the reader interested inbottomupelectricity consumption forecasting problemstorefer to theopendatasets listed in [3]. Thedatasetconsists inapproximately25000half-hourly loadconsumptionseriesover twoyears (2009–2010). Thefirstyear isused forpartitioningandthecalibrationofour forecastingalgorithm, thenthesecondyear isusedasa test set tosimulateareal forecastinguse-case. The initialdatasetcontainsover25,000 individual loadcurves. Totest theup-scalingabilityof our implementation,wecreate threedatasetsof sizes250,000;2,500,000and25,000,000. Inotherwords, weprogressively increase thesamplesizesbyafactorof10,100and1000respectively. Thecreation followsasimpleschemewhereeach individualcurve ismultipliedbytherealizationof independent variablesuniformlydistributedon [0.95,1.05]ateachtimestep. Eachcurve is thenreplicatedusing thisschemebyseveral timesequal to theup-scalingfactor. 7.2.NumericalExperiments Thefirst taskclusteringiscrucial forreducingthedimensionof thedataset.Wegivesometimings inorder to illustratehowour approach candealwith tensof thousandsof time series. Of course, the total computationtimedependsonthe technical specificationof thestructureusedtoperformthe computation. Inourcase,werestrictourselvestoastandardscientificworkstationwith8physicalcores and70Gigabitsof livememory.Weuseall theavailablecores toclusterchunksof5000observations followingthealgorithmdescribed inSection6forboth thefirstandsecondclusteringtask. Averysimplepretreatmentisdoneinordertoeliminateloadcurveswitheventualerrors. Forthis, wemeasure thestandarddeviationof thecontributionsofeachcurve tokeeponly the99%central observationseliminating theextremestones.With this, tooflatcurves (maybeconstant) consumptions orverywiggleonesareconsideredtobeabnormal. Table1givesmeanaveragerunningtimesover5replicates foreachof thedifferentsamplesizes. These figures show that our strategy yields on a linear increment on the computation timewith respect to thenumberof timeseries. Themaximumnumberofserieswetreat, that is25millionsof individualcurves,needsabout12htoachieve thefirst taskclustering. 243