Seite - 558 - in VULNERABLE - The Law, Policy and Ethics of COVID-19

VULNERABLE558 it is reasoned that other countries will be safe from the pathogen, as there is no human vector through which the pathogen can travel. Border closures, unfortunately, are not so simple. The reality is that people will find a way to travel to their destination if they really need or want to do so, either by first travelling to a third country, or by travelling through unofficial channels. The former increases the global risk by increasing the distance and segments of travel. The latter makes it more difficult to identify individuals infected by the pathogen and trace those with whom they came into contact. There is also usually a gap between the time when governments announce border closures and when they can be implemented, provoking an immediate surge in travel that increases the risk of infectious disease transmission, along- side the chaos that comes with sudden stampedes of travellers.2 The best available empirical research evidence also supports the view that targeted border closures are likely to be ineffective.3 For example: temporary flight bans in the United States after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks did not stop or diminish that season’s influenza outbreak;4 travel restrictions imposed by several countries against Mexico during the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak reduced travel by 40% but only delayed the virus’s arrival in other countries by less than three days;5 and epidemiologic simulations of H5N1 avian influenza found that even a 90% reduction in travel through border closures would merely slow that virus’s spread by a few days to weeks in the implementing country.6 Case data from the first four months of the COVID-19 outbreak show that countries with targeted border closures against high-risk regions have fared no better than countries without targeted border 2. Doug Saunders, “Why Travel Bans Fail to Stop Pandemics”, Foreign  Affairs (15 May 2020), online: <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/canada/2020- 05-15/why-travel-bans-fail-stop-pandemics>. 3. Nicole A Errett, Lauren M Sauer & Lainie Rutkow, “An Integrative Review of the Limited Evidence on International Travel Bans as an Emerging Infectious Disease Disaster Control Measure” (2020) 18:1 Journal of Emergency Management 7; Ali Tejpar & Steven J Hoffman, “Canada’s Violation of International Law during the 2014-16 Ebola Outbreak” (2017) 54 Canadian Yearbook of International Law 366. 4. John S Brownstein, Cecily J Wolfe & Kenneth D Mandl, “Empirical Evidence for the Effect of Airline Travel on Inter-Regional Influenza Spread in the United States” (2006) 3:10 PLoS Med 1826 at 1832. 5. Paolo Bajardi et al, “Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic” (2011) 6:1 PLoS ONE 1. 6. Timothy C Germann et al, “Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza in the United States” (2006) 103:15 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 5935 at 5938.