Seite - 19 - in Water, Energy, and Environment - A Primer

Throughout the EIA’s projection period the use of all fuels grows, except for coal, where worldwide use stays flat. It is increasingly replaced by natural gas and renewables, and, in China, by nuclear power. Renewable energy grows the fastest. Petroleum and other liquid hydrocarbons remain the world’s largest energy source, but natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel (seeFigure 2.4). World oil production (including all liquid hydrocarbons), 93.7 billion barrels per day in 2016 (14), is currently holding its own due to major new discoveries of conventional reserves at great depths beneath the ocean floor. There is also considerable new non-conventional production from tar sands and fracking, both ofwhichwill be discussed inChapter 6. In fact, according to Dr Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, ‘Fracking will make the United States the largest supplier of oil and gas in the world by 2023 (15).’ Further discoveries of conventional oil are also anticipated in Arctic andAntarctic regions as they become less ice-covereddue to globalwarming. Nevertheless,many, ifnotmost,analystsexpectoilproduction to reach its peak (‘peak out’) within the first half of the 21st Figure 2.4 Energy consumption projections (Source: U.S. Energy InformationAdministration). Energyand itsglobal context 19