Seite - 74 - in Water, Energy, and Environment - A Primer

would peak between 1965 and 1971. He used the terms ‘peak production rate’ and ‘peak in the rate of discoveries’; the term Peak Oil was introduced in 2002 by Colin Campbell and Kjell Aleklett when they formed ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas. ASPO ceased operations in 2017. Where the application ofHubbert’s theory falls short is in the assumptions onwhichhis theory is based.Hedidnot anticipate, nor did others, the rapid emergence of unconventional oil and the substitutions for oil (alternative fuels, electrification of transportation) that have been or are being developed. He did mention these possibilities in the 1956 paper and did his best with the information available at the time. What has changed is that oil production no longer depends only on ‘conventional’ oil supplies but increasingly on ‘unconventional’ resources that are an increasing part of total oil supply.A fewdefinitions, courtesyofWikipedia,will help: ‘Conventionaloil isoil that isgenerallyeasy to recover, incontrast tooil sands, oil shale, heavy crude oil, deep-water oil, polar oil and gas condensate. Conventional oil reserves are extracted using their inherent pressure, pumps, flooding or injection of water or gas. Approximately 95%of all oil production comes fromconventional oil reserves. Unconventional oil is oil that is technicallymore difficult to extract and more expensive to recover. The term unconventional refers not only to the geological formation and characteristics of the deposits but also to the technical realization of ecologically acceptable and economical usage.’ Given these definitions, it is reasonable to agree that the age of cheap oil, which we enjoyed for a good part of the 20th century, is over. As reported by the former BP geologist Dr Richard Miller in a speech (39) at University College London in 2013: ‘… official data from the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration, the International Monetary Fund, and other sources, showed that conventional oil had most likely peaked around 2008.’ He Water,Energy, andEnvironment–APrimer74