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Box 4.1 VBD Risk Modelling for Climate Change Conditions and
Suitable Policy Interventions in Ecuador
In their article, Escobar et al. (2016) analyse the current and potential future
impact of climate change on vector diversity and geographical distribution in
Ecuador through ecological niche modelling. The authors applied broader
scale climate modelling concerning the current distribution of vectors, using
remote sensing data. They defined suitable vector environments as potential
high-risk areas, which were used to do future risk VBD modelling under cli-
mate change. Overall, they analysed current, medium-term and long-term
predictions for vector distribution that can transmit dengue, malaria, Chagas
and leishmaniasis. The model for the dengue transmitting vectors Aedes
aegypti and Ae. albopictus, the latter not being officially reported in Ecuador
but in neighboring countries, indicates a currently reduced, but future
increased, risk for dengue transmission in highland regions, and long-term
high risk in the coastal and Northeastern Amazonian areas. Importantly, cli-
mate change models predicted a change in vector-suitability environments,
proposing an increased risk in western Andean valleys, which will pose addi-
tional public health and intervention challenges.
Escobar et
al. (2016) present overall a higher risk for vector-borne diseases
under future climate regimes, particularly in part of the Ecuadorian coast, val-
leys of the Northeastern Amazonian and western Andean region. Mitchell-
Foster et
al. (2015) have presented an integrated policy intervention that could
propose a lasting option to vector-borne disease prevention and control,
empowering communities and building future community health leaders. In
their randomised controlled study in Machala, on the southwestern coast of
Ecuador, they employed an integrated eco-bio-social approach among school
children, aged 8–12 years, to significantly reduce the pupa per person index.
Mitchell-Foster et al. (2015) used 20 clusters of 100 households, selected
based on a two-stage-sampling design. Ten clusters were used for the inte-
grated eco-bio-social approach and ten as control clusters. In addition, differ-
ent forms of geographical mapping and pupa per person index (PPI) were
used as an outcome measurement. The overall result showed a decreased PPI,
and in those households where there were not any changes noted through
monthly control visits, particular engagement activities were deployed
(Mitchell-Foster et al. 2015, p.128). The integrative eco-bio-social approach
among school
children allowed for social empowerment, capacity building of
future leaders and vector control. Given the projections for future dengue risk
by Escobar et al. (2016), the findings of Mitchell-Foster’s et al. (2015) ran-
domised controlled study would present a suitable policy intervention, which
could easily be scaled up on a national level.
4 Vector-Borne Diseases
Biodiversity and Health in the Face of Climate Change
- Titel
- Biodiversity and Health in the Face of Climate Change
- Autoren
- Melissa Marselle
- Jutta Stadler
- Horst Korn
- Katherine Irvine
- Aletta Bonn
- Verlag
- Springer Open
- Datum
- 2019
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-030-02318-8
- Abmessungen
- 15.5 x 24.0 cm
- Seiten
- 508
- Schlagwörter
- Environment, Environmental health, Applied ecology, Climate change, Biodiversity, Public health, Regional planning, Urban planning
- Kategorien
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima