Page - 73 - in Biodiversity and Health in the Face of Climate Change

73 Box 4.1 VBD Risk Modelling for Climate Change Conditions and Suitable Policy Interventions in Ecuador In their article, Escobar et  al. (2016) analyse the current and potential future impact of climate change on vector diversity and geographical distribution in Ecuador through ecological niche modelling. The authors applied broader scale climate modelling concerning the current distribution of vectors, using remote sensing data. They defined suitable vector environments as potential high-risk areas, which were used to do future risk VBD modelling under cli- mate change. Overall, they analysed current, medium-term and long-term predictions for vector distribution that can transmit dengue, malaria, Chagas and leishmaniasis. The model for the dengue transmitting vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, the latter not being officially reported in Ecuador but in neighboring countries, indicates a currently reduced, but future increased, risk for dengue transmission in highland regions, and long-term high risk in the coastal and Northeastern Amazonian areas. Importantly, cli- mate change models predicted a change in vector-suitability environments, proposing an increased risk in western Andean valleys, which will pose addi- tional public health and intervention challenges. Escobar et  al. (2016) present overall a higher risk for vector-borne diseases under future climate regimes, particularly in part of the Ecuadorian coast, val- leys of the Northeastern Amazonian and western Andean region. Mitchell- Foster et  al. (2015) have presented an integrated policy intervention that could propose a lasting option to vector-borne disease prevention and control, empowering communities and building future community health leaders. In their randomised controlled study in Machala, on the southwestern coast of Ecuador, they employed an integrated eco-bio-social approach among school children, aged 8–12  years, to significantly reduce the pupa per person index. Mitchell-Foster et  al. (2015) used 20 clusters of 100 households, selected based on a two-stage-sampling design. Ten clusters were used for the inte- grated eco-bio-social approach and ten as control clusters. In addition, differ- ent forms of geographical mapping and pupa per person index (PPI) were used as an outcome measurement. The overall result showed a decreased PPI, and in those households where there were not any changes noted through monthly control visits, particular engagement activities were deployed (Mitchell-Foster et  al.  2015, p.128). The integrative eco-bio-social approach among school  children allowed for social empowerment, capacity building of future leaders and vector control. Given the projections for future dengue risk by Escobar et  al. (2016), the findings of Mitchell-Foster’s  et  al. (2015) ran- domised controlled study would present a suitable policy intervention, which could easily be scaled up on a national level. 4 Vector-Borne Diseases