Seite - 106 - in Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

energies Article CostProjectionofStateof theArtLithium-Ion Batteries forElectricVehiclesUpto2030 GertBerckmans*,MaartenMessagie, JelleSmekens,NoshinOmar,LieselotVanhaverbeke andJoeriVanMierlo MOBIResearchGroup,VrijeUniversiteitBrussel,Pleinlaan2,1050Brussels,Belgium; maarten.messagie@vub.be (M.M.); jelle.smekens@vub.be (J.S.);noshomar@vub.ac.be (N.O.); Lieselot.vanhaverbeke@vub.be (L.V.); joeri.van.mierlo@vub.be (J.V.M.) * Correspondence: gert.berckmans@vub.be;Tel.: +32-2629-3399 AcademicEditor:K.T.Chau Received: 20 July2017;Accepted: 24August2017;Published: 1September2017 Abstract: The negative impact of the automotive industry on climate change can be tackled by changing fromfossil drivenvehicles towardsbattery electric vehicleswithno tailpipe emissions. However theiradoptionmainlydependsonthewillingness topayfor theextracostof the traction battery. The goal of this paper is to predict the cost of a batterypack in 2030when considering twoaspects: firstlyadecadeof researchwill ensurean improvement inmaterial sciencesaltering abattery’schemicalcomposition. Secondlybyconsideringthepriceerosiondueto theproduction cost optimization, bymaturingof themarket andbyevolving towards toamass-manufacturing situation. The cost of a lithiumNickelManganeseCobaltOxide (NMC)battery (Cathode: NMC 6:2:2 ;Anode: graphite)aswellassiliconbasedlithium-ionbattery (Cathode:NMC6:2:2 ;Anode: siliconalloy), expected tobeon themarket in10years,will bepredicted to tackle thefirst aspect. Thesecondaspectwillbeconsideredbycombiningprocess-basedcost calculationswith learning curves,whichtakes the increasingbatterymarket intoaccount. The100dollar/kWhsalesbarrierwill bereachedrespectivelybetween2020–2025forsiliconbasedlithium-ionbatteriesand2025–2030for NMCbatteries,whichwillgiveaboost toglobalelectricvehicleadoption. Keywords:process-basedcostmodeling;NMCbattery;siliconlithium-ionbattery;marketprediction; learningcurves 1. Introduction Throughout the last decades, the emission of greenhouse gases have increaseddramatically; however, theirnegative impactontheclimatehasbeendemonstrated[1,2]. To limit theseadversary effectsof climatechange, severalactionsareundertakenonaworldwidescale, forexample ithasbeen agreedatCOP21inParis tokeepthetemperaturerise limitedtomaximum2 ◦C[3].Additionally, steps areundertakenbytheEuropeanCommissiontohaveacleanerenvironmentbysettingnewambitious environmental targets. Forexample theEUtarget is tohaveaCO2 reductionby20%comparedto the levelsof2008asstated in theirwhitepaper [4]. Improvingurbanairqualityandreducing its impact onclimatechangeof transport comesdownto (1) reducing the total consumptionofkilometersby improvingefficiencyof theserviceand(2)providingtheremainderofneededtransportwithout fossil fuels.Atechnologicaloptiontosubstitute fossilbasedkmis tousebatteryelectricvehicles,powered byrenewable fuels. Toensureaminimumofdrivingrangea large,expensivebattery is requiredfor batteryelectricvehicles, explainingtheirhighcostwhich is limiting itsmass-adoption. Thecostand performanceof thebattery, themost expensive component inavehicle, isdirectly linkedwith the adaptionofelectricvehicles. Theadoptiontowardsbatteryelectricvehiclesmainlydependsonthe willingness topayfor theextracostof the tractionbattery. Thereforewill thispaperstudytheprice Energies 2017,10, 1314;doi:10.3390/en10091314 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies106