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energies
Article
CostProjectionofStateof theArtLithium-Ion
Batteries forElectricVehiclesUpto2030
GertBerckmans*,MaartenMessagie, JelleSmekens,NoshinOmar,LieselotVanhaverbeke
andJoeriVanMierlo
MOBIResearchGroup,VrijeUniversiteitBrussel,Pleinlaan2,1050Brussels,Belgium;
maarten.messagie@vub.be (M.M.); jelle.smekens@vub.be (J.S.);noshomar@vub.ac.be (N.O.);
Lieselot.vanhaverbeke@vub.be (L.V.); joeri.van.mierlo@vub.be (J.V.M.)
* Correspondence: gert.berckmans@vub.be;Tel.: +32-2629-3399
AcademicEditor:K.T.Chau
Received: 20 July2017;Accepted: 24August2017;Published: 1September2017
Abstract: The negative impact of the automotive industry on climate change can be tackled by
changing fromfossil drivenvehicles towardsbattery electric vehicleswithno tailpipe emissions.
However theiradoptionmainlydependsonthewillingness topayfor theextracostof the traction
battery. The goal of this paper is to predict the cost of a batterypack in 2030when considering
twoaspects: firstlyadecadeof researchwill ensurean improvement inmaterial sciencesaltering
abattery’schemicalcomposition. Secondlybyconsideringthepriceerosiondueto theproduction
cost optimization, bymaturingof themarket andbyevolving towards toamass-manufacturing
situation. The cost of a lithiumNickelManganeseCobaltOxide (NMC)battery (Cathode: NMC
6:2:2 ;Anode: graphite)aswellassiliconbasedlithium-ionbattery (Cathode:NMC6:2:2 ;Anode:
siliconalloy), expected tobeon themarket in10years,will bepredicted to tackle thefirst aspect.
Thesecondaspectwillbeconsideredbycombiningprocess-basedcost calculationswith learning
curves,whichtakes the increasingbatterymarket intoaccount. The100dollar/kWhsalesbarrierwill
bereachedrespectivelybetween2020–2025forsiliconbasedlithium-ionbatteriesand2025–2030for
NMCbatteries,whichwillgiveaboost toglobalelectricvehicleadoption.
Keywords:process-basedcostmodeling;NMCbattery;siliconlithium-ionbattery;marketprediction;
learningcurves
1. Introduction
Throughout the last decades, the emission of greenhouse gases have increaseddramatically;
however, theirnegative impactontheclimatehasbeendemonstrated[1,2]. To limit theseadversary
effectsof climatechange, severalactionsareundertakenonaworldwidescale, forexample ithasbeen
agreedatCOP21inParis tokeepthetemperaturerise limitedtomaximum2 ◦C[3].Additionally, steps
areundertakenbytheEuropeanCommissiontohaveacleanerenvironmentbysettingnewambitious
environmental targets. Forexample theEUtarget is tohaveaCO2 reductionby20%comparedto the
levelsof2008asstated in theirwhitepaper [4]. Improvingurbanairqualityandreducing its impact
onclimatechangeof transport comesdownto (1) reducing the total consumptionofkilometersby
improvingefficiencyof theserviceand(2)providingtheremainderofneededtransportwithout fossil
fuels.Atechnologicaloptiontosubstitute fossilbasedkmis tousebatteryelectricvehicles,powered
byrenewable fuels. Toensureaminimumofdrivingrangea large,expensivebattery is requiredfor
batteryelectricvehicles, explainingtheirhighcostwhich is limiting itsmass-adoption. Thecostand
performanceof thebattery, themost expensive component inavehicle, isdirectly linkedwith the
adaptionofelectricvehicles. Theadoptiontowardsbatteryelectricvehiclesmainlydependsonthe
willingness topayfor theextracostof the tractionbattery. Thereforewill thispaperstudytheprice
Energies 2017,10, 1314;doi:10.3390/en10091314 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies106
Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
- Title
- Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
- Editor
- MDPI
- Location
- Basel
- Date
- 2017
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-03897-191-7
- Size
- 17.0 x 24.4 cm
- Pages
- 376
- Keywords
- electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), energy sources, energy management strategy, energy-storage system, charging technologies, control algorithms, battery, operating scenario, wireless power transfer (WPT)
- Category
- Technik