Seite - 107 - in Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

Energies 2017,10, 1314 evolutionofanautomotivebatteryup to2030andanswer the followingquestions.What is thusa reasonablepriceofa1kWhlithiumbattery in2030?Canweexpectanerosionof thepriceduetoa productioncostoptimization inamass-manufacturingsituation? Inaninitialphase, thecurrentmarketofelectricandhybridvehicles isanalyzed.Additionally, its salesupto2030arepredictedbasedonhistoricaldata. Costofabattery is inversely linkedwith thegrowthof themarketofelectricvehicles, since largerproductionquantities leads to lowerscost per unit. In this study this effectwill not be taken into account, resulting in anunderestimation or a very conservative estimation of the amount of EVs. In a second phase the cost and sales priceof abatteryare calculatedandpredictedup to2030baseduponan innovativemethodology. This innovativemethodologywill combineprocess-basedcostmodelingwith learningcurves tocope withtheevolutionfromanimmature toamaturebatterymarket.Another innovativeaspect is that currentstateof theartbatterychemistrieswillbeusedalongsidewithbatterychemistrieswhichare believed to become the state of the art in 2030. A roadmapof future battery technologieswill be presented,outofwhichapromisingbatterychemistrywillbechosen. 2.MarketandTechnologyLandscapeofElectricVehicles Thissectionwillanalyze thecurrentglobalautomotivemarketaswellas the technological split betweeninternalcombustiondrivenvehicles,hybridandelectricvehicles. Thecurrent technological split isexpectedtochangeduetofirstlytheincreasedawarenessregardingclimatechangeandsecondly thedecreasingcostofelectricvehicles. Basedonhistorical salesfiguresapredictionofglobal salesof vehiclesupto2030willbemade, includingtheevolutionof the technological split. 2.1. State of theArt—BEV Anoverviewof themostsoldBEVsinthesmallandmedium-largesegmentof2016areshown inTable1, adapted from[5]. This isanon-exhaustive list, forexamplevehicleswhichdonot reach 100km/hareomittedaswellasvehiclessold in lowquantities. It canbeseenthat in thesegmentof small cars,whicharemainlycitycars, rathersmallbatteriesareusedwithanaverageenergycontent of 18.2kWhanda rangeof 150km. Theaveragevaluesarequite coherent since themediangives comparableresults. In thissegmentrathersmallbatteriesareuseddueto tworeasons. Firstlyabattery represents75%ofanEVspowertraincost [6],whichmeans that implementingabiggerbatterywould significantly increase theoverall cost. Secondly,becausespace isoften limited inacitycar toplacea biggerbattery. In thesegmentofmediumto largecars it is clear fromTable1 thatbiggerbatteriesare used,namelyonaverageabatteryenergycontentof36.2kWhandofcoursea largeraveragerange of 231km. However, due to the largebatteryof theTesla’s theaverage canbemisleadingand the mediangivesabetter representationof thecurrentmarket,meaninganenergycontentof24.2kWh andarangeof190km.This isconsistentwith thehighercostandsizeof thesevehicles. 107