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Energies 2017,10, 1314
evolutionofanautomotivebatteryup to2030andanswer the followingquestions.What is thusa
reasonablepriceofa1kWhlithiumbattery in2030?Canweexpectanerosionof thepriceduetoa
productioncostoptimization inamass-manufacturingsituation?
Inaninitialphase, thecurrentmarketofelectricandhybridvehicles isanalyzed.Additionally,
its salesupto2030arepredictedbasedonhistoricaldata. Costofabattery is inversely linkedwith
thegrowthof themarketofelectricvehicles, since largerproductionquantities leads to lowerscost
per unit. In this study this effectwill not be taken into account, resulting in anunderestimation
or a very conservative estimation of the amount of EVs. In a second phase the cost and sales
priceof abatteryare calculatedandpredictedup to2030baseduponan innovativemethodology.
This innovativemethodologywill combineprocess-basedcostmodelingwith learningcurves tocope
withtheevolutionfromanimmature toamaturebatterymarket.Another innovativeaspect is that
currentstateof theartbatterychemistrieswillbeusedalongsidewithbatterychemistrieswhichare
believed to become the state of the art in 2030. A roadmapof future battery technologieswill be
presented,outofwhichapromisingbatterychemistrywillbechosen.
2.MarketandTechnologyLandscapeofElectricVehicles
Thissectionwillanalyze thecurrentglobalautomotivemarketaswellas the technological split
betweeninternalcombustiondrivenvehicles,hybridandelectricvehicles. Thecurrent technological
split isexpectedtochangeduetofirstlytheincreasedawarenessregardingclimatechangeandsecondly
thedecreasingcostofelectricvehicles. Basedonhistorical salesfiguresapredictionofglobal salesof
vehiclesupto2030willbemade, includingtheevolutionof the technological split.
2.1. State of theArt—BEV
Anoverviewof themostsoldBEVsinthesmallandmedium-largesegmentof2016areshown
inTable1, adapted from[5]. This isanon-exhaustive list, forexamplevehicleswhichdonot reach
100km/hareomittedaswellasvehiclessold in lowquantities. It canbeseenthat in thesegmentof
small cars,whicharemainlycitycars, rathersmallbatteriesareusedwithanaverageenergycontent
of 18.2kWhanda rangeof 150km. Theaveragevaluesarequite coherent since themediangives
comparableresults. In thissegmentrathersmallbatteriesareuseddueto tworeasons. Firstlyabattery
represents75%ofanEVspowertraincost [6],whichmeans that implementingabiggerbatterywould
significantly increase theoverall cost. Secondly,becausespace isoften limited inacitycar toplacea
biggerbattery. In thesegmentofmediumto largecars it is clear fromTable1 thatbiggerbatteriesare
used,namelyonaverageabatteryenergycontentof36.2kWhandofcoursea largeraveragerange
of 231km. However, due to the largebatteryof theTesla’s theaverage canbemisleadingand the
mediangivesabetter representationof thecurrentmarket,meaninganenergycontentof24.2kWh
andarangeof190km.This isconsistentwith thehighercostandsizeof thesevehicles.
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Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
- Title
- Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
- Editor
- MDPI
- Location
- Basel
- Date
- 2017
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-03897-191-7
- Size
- 17.0 x 24.4 cm
- Pages
- 376
- Keywords
- electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), energy sources, energy management strategy, energy-storage system, charging technologies, control algorithms, battery, operating scenario, wireless power transfer (WPT)
- Category
- Technik