Seite - 109 - in Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

Energies 2017,10, 1314 about500km,sohavingacomparablebatterycapacityasaTeslaofabout75–90kWhwill significantly speedup the adoption of EVs. To implement such batteries their energy density has to increase significantly, sincebatterywithsuchhighenergycontentare to large tofit insmall citycars. Table2.Overviewofmostsoldhybridelectricvehicles in2016 inEurope(10mostpopular). VehicleSegment Brand Model ModelYear BatteryEnergyContent Range(kWh) (km) Medium-Large VW PassatGTE 2015 9,9 50 Mitsubishi OutlanderPHEV 2013 12 52 Volvo XC90PHEV 2015 9,2 40 Mercedes GLC350e 2016 8,7 34 BMW 225xeActiveTourer 2015 7,6 41 Mercedes C350e 2015 6,5 31 BMW 330e 2015 7,6 40 BMW X540e 2015 9 31 Audi A3e-Tron 2014 9 50 BMW i3rangeextended 2013 22 320 Average 18.2 153 Median 9 41 2.3. ElectricVehiclePredictionUpto2030 Thefollowingparagraphwillmakeapredictionof theglobalsalesofelectric,hybrid, classical combustionenginevehiclesaswellasother typesofvehiclessuchascompressednaturalgas (CNG), liquefiedpetroleumgas (LPG), fuel cells vehicles,whichwill be combined in the categoryothers. Baseduponaliteraturereview[16–21]apredictionof thetechnologysplit isshowninFigure1. In2015 theglobal salesarestilldominated(99.3%)bytheclassical combustionengine(ICE)basedvehicles, evenby2030moreICEthanelectricvehiclesaresoldhowever itsdominancedecreasessignificantly. Dueto the increasingeffortof theautomotivemanufacturersmoreandmoreHEVandBEVmodels areavailableon themarket, increasing thechoice for consumers,whichwasquite limitedup to in thepast. In203025%ofallvehiclessoldwillbeeither fullyelectricorhybrid, requiringanenormous amount of batteries. Toget a better ideaof thequantities this analysis is expandedby combining thepreviousfigurewith theexpectedglobal salesofvehiclespredictionsworldwide,whichcanbe seen in Figure 2. Only limited sources are available in literature [22–28]whichpredict the global salesupto2030. Therefore itwasoptedtomakeapredictionbaseduponthesales in thepast,more specifically theglobalsalesbetween2010and2015wereanalyzed[28]. Sinceonlyasmallperiodof time isanalyzeda linearapproximation isused,predicting in2020,2025,2030receptively107,122and 138millionvehicles soldyearly. The linearapproximationcanbeclearlyseen in the increaseof the totalamountofvehicles sold,Figure2. Thepeakof ICEvehicleswillbereached in2020withasalesof more than100millions. By2030roughly10millionBEVsand20millionHEVswillbesoldonayearly. Whenassuming75–90kWhisneededforBEV,HEVwill requirehalfof thecapacity roughly23billion kWhofbatteryarerequiredyearlywhich isavery largepotentialmarket forbatterymanufactures. 109