Page - 264 - in Book of Full Papers - Symposium Hydro Engineering

COMMISSION INTERNATIONALE DES GRANDS BARRAGES ------- VINGT-SIXIÈME CONGRÈS DES GRANDS BARRAGES Autriche, juillet 2018 ------- STUDY ON RISK ANALYSIS FOR FLOOD PREVENTION AND DAM SAFETY BASED ON STOCHASTIC SIMULATION Jie GAO Senior Engineer of China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute Master supervisor of China Three Gorges University CHINA Abstract: Based on stochastic simulation of inflow flood for cascade reservoirs, the P-III distribution of flood peaks, flood regulation and reservoir operation were taken into account. The probabilities of flood overtopping, stage exceeding several critical levels were calculated based on a great number of stochastic samples. Refer to study on acceptable risk analysis, considering climate change, taking four cascade reservoirs as a case study, the procedure of assessment for risk analysis of flood control and dam safety were proposed. Key words: flood control; hydrology; safety of dams; Risk analysis; risk analysis for dam safety; flood control and dam safety; overtopping risk analysis 1. INTRODUCTION Public security is closely related to project safety. Both researchers and engineers focus on the analysis, assessment and criterion of project risk. The  This work is funded by Power Construction Corporation of China（DJ-ZDZX-2016-02） 264