Page - 1215 - in Book of Full Papers - Symposium Hydro Engineering

Fig 2. The Weighting Histogram of the Causal Relationship Between Parameters Based on results with Semi Quantitative Method, it is known that anticipating factors related to natural disasters (32,59 %) , especially the disaster of dam collapse (17,78%), are the dominant parameters that influence the modification effort of dam security risk assessment. The prediction of the amount of LoL itself depends heavily on these two factors. Meanwhile, two other factors that are balanced but interrelated is the information factor predicting the flood flow (14,81%) that will occur with the PAR preparedness factor facing the disaster related evacuation action (13,33%) and evacuation site plus post disaster handling (8,15%). The information (8,89%) and prediction of PAR (4,44%) factor has the lowest weight compared to other parameters. 3.5 Assessment In accordance with the size of the weighting and classification of predefined parameters, the minimum / lower and upper limit which describes the predicted condition of the LoL amount is as follows : N min = [1x(32.59+17.78+14.81+8.89+13.30+8.15+4.4)+(0x14.81)] = 99,92 [1] N max = [5x(32.59+17.78+14.81+8.89+13.30+8.15+4.4)+(1x14.81)] = 514.41 [2] 32.59 17.78 14.81 8.89 13.33 8.15 4.44 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 Anticipation of Downstream Dams to Natural Disasters Event Disaster Failure of The Dam Flood Characteristic ( H, V and WT ) Amount of People at Risk (PAR) Readiness of PAR and Related Agency Disaster For Evacuation Readiness from Evacuation Site and Post-Disaster Handling Prediction of LoL 1215