Page - 1469 - in Book of Full Papers - Symposium Hydro Engineering

[7] TRY 2011 Aktualisierte und erweiterte Testreferenzjahre von Deutschland für mittlere, extreme und zukünftige Witterungsverhältnisse. 2011, Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung (BBR) / Climate & Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbH / Deutscher Wetterdienst, Potsdam. [8] WITTKE W. Felsmechanik, Grundlagen für wirtschaftliches Bauen im Fels. 1984, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, Tokyo. [9] OPTISLANG MANUAL The optimizing Structural Language version 6.2.1. 2017, DYNARDO GmbH, Weimar, www.dynardo.de. [10] MULTIPLAS MANUAL Elastoplastic Material Models for ANSYS - General Multisurface Plasticity. 2017 DYNARDO GmbH, Weimar, www.dynardo.de. [11] SCHLEGEL R., GOLDGRUBER M., MROZEK M., FLEISCHER H. Investigation of the Reliability of Dams with Stochastic Finite Element Methods. Proceedings of the 14th ICOLD International Benchmark Workshop on Numerical Analysis of Dams, 2018. SUMMARY The analysis of failure probabilities is an important element of risk assessment in dam management. This investigation is illustrating probability of failure calculations of the Eder dam, an old gravity dam in Germany, by means of a parameterized and fully nonlinear 3D-finite element model of the dam and the foundation. The model is calibrated based on measurements (thermal, hydraulic and mechanical) with the software optiSLang®. Therefore, sensitivity analysis with stochastic latin hypercube sampling is performed using a total of 200 designs (parameter combinations) with varying material parameters of the dam and the foundation. For the stochastic analysis of the dam, distribution functions for all relevant effects and resistances, e.g. flood events, are defined. After all, the evaluation of the stochastic analysis is done again with optiSLang®, which is capable to directly yield the failure probability Pf for the specified assessment criteria. Additionally, input parameters influencing the failure probability the most can be indicated quantitatively and qualitatively. Two reliability analyses by means of probabilities of failure are carried out. To determine the exceedance probabilities, an adaptive response surface method (ARSM) was used in combination with the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) with several hundred simulations each. As a result of the analyses, it can be stated that both failure probabilities are below the value of Pf = 10-5, corresponding to reliability indexes above β = 4.27 (Reference period of 100 years). Thus, by using probabilistic analyses and procedures described in the report, a sufficient stability of the Eder dam can be confirmed and the safety margins beyond are quantified. Keywords: Finite Element Method, Gravity Dam, Safety of Dams, Stochastical Method 1469