Page - (000062) - in Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development

placeofwoodburningand fossil fuel generators, also resulting in less pollution in these villages. The behavioural assumptionwas that villagerswould bewilling to spendmoremoneyonenergygiventhebenefits inreliabilityofsupply,reducingthe need forwoodand thus reducingdeforestation, reducingpollutionand saving time in searching for wood. The hydroelectric power plants would bemade available through public-private arrangements, supported by the States and by the Federal Government, and legitimizedandpromoted throughanational strategy.The theory of change provided a series of causal linkages that together would change the market for hydro-electric power in remote hilly areas andwould lead to consider- able reductionsofgreenhousegasemissions.Morechallengingwas theperspective that thiswouldalsoleadtoreduceddeforestationandtobiodiversitybenefits(Ratna Reddy et al. 2006, 4071). Thedemandforevidenceof impactcanbeplacedatvarious levels in this theory of change. First of all, the hydroelectric power plants are supposed to produce energywithgreater efficiency ingreenhousegas emissions thanother local energy sources: these emissions should be lower than the same levels of energyproduced through burningwood and through fossil fuel generators. Technological expecta- tions in this regardneed tobemetandonecouldargue that thefirst impactquestion would bewhether the hydroelectric plants deliverwhat they promise. The second question is whether the village manages to integrate the hydroelectric mills into their society:will theymaintain themills, pay their energybills anduse this source ofenergyinsteadofrevertingtowoodandfossil fuels?This is thekindofbehaviour question that isbeloved in traditional impactevaluations.Athirdquestionconcerns whether theshift towardshydro-electricpower is leading toachangeon theenergy market in remotehilly areas.Havedemonstrationand thefirst verifiableoutputsof the project led to an increased supply on this market; i.e. is the private sector offering hydroelectric technologies to villages? And if so, is there a demand for this? Are villages actively taking this up for consideration when looking at their energyoptions?Andis thefinancial sectorwilling toprovide loans for investments tothecommunitiesorvillages?Afourthimpactquestionis thenwhether themarket has changed– if it has changed– locally, regionallyornationally.Thesequestions need to be looked at from three different perspectives: time, space and scale. 3.4 KeyQuestionsRelated toTime,SpaceandScale Especiallywith aglobal issue likeclimatechange thedemand for impact evidence ranges from“whatworkshereandnow”to“has it contributed,orwill it contribute, tostopclimatechange”.Thefirst isvery local, timeandscalebound, just lookingat whether a specificmechanismworks as it is supposed to. The second looks at the planet, at scenarios that go into the future and that are at thehighest (global) scale. Both are relevant questions andneed to be answered. This translates into issuesof time, spaceandscale. It isquiteclear that aproject of $ 14.6million cannot change the national energymarket for remote hilly areas 42 R.D. vandenBerg