Page - 142 - in Critical Issues in Science, Technology and Society Studies - Conference Proceedings of the 17th STS Conference Graz 2018

Participatory modelling as an extended peer-review process Participatory modelling brings together experts on technology (with qualified estimates of future technological and infrastructural changes intended to support the transformation) and policy experts (identifying possible political and economic accelerators and obstacles) with experience in implementing steps towards the post-carbon economy. Experts (e.g. engineers, researchers, governmental and non-governmental organizations’ analysts, lobbyists, policy-makers etc.) are stakeholders with detailed knowledge of possible developments in the sector of wind and solar energy. Participatory modelling of input-output structures has been applied early on, e.g. by Duchin and Lange (1995). The underlying assumption is that the stakeholders have both (1) knowledge of the topic, and (2) interest in shaping the future towards a post-carbon society. The research approach should assure that not only knowledge of expected developments in particular sectors and its technical details (i.e. electricity production based on renewable energy), but also broader ideas about ways to shape policy and economic developments in order to achieve the post-carbon future, are taken seriously into account. We propose to develop our research along post-normal science (as applied e.g. by Haag and Kaupenjohann (2001)) as a suitable philosophical grounding. The extended peer-review (i.e. including non-scientific knowledge) as a specific methodological approach under fundamental uncertainty was suggested by Funtowicz and Ravetz (1994), but can be tracked down already to Paul Karl Feyerabend and his “Against method” (Feyerabend 1993). We take this approach in order to overcome several uncertainties arising from future developments, and in order to get more compelling images of desirable future socio-economic structures, trusted by those who endeavour to bring this future. Input-output representation of the post-carbon economy The experts’ estimations will be translated into the logic of alternative input-output models for 2050, representing structural effects of different transformation pathways and underlying scenarios. IOA allows capturing inter-industry linkages and measuring their direct and also indirect effects of externally imposed changes (Kerschner and Hubacek 2009). The basic input- output transaction table consists of rows showing “Who gives to whom?” and columns showing “Who receives from whom?” in an economy. The input-output models with socioeconomic and environmental accounts allow to track changes e.g. in labour demand or related GHG emissions production. The World Input-Output Database (WIOD) is taken as a source of data for the current monetary fluxes. Our study works with data from WIOD 2016 release, which contains data for monetary fluxes between the economic sectors for every year since 2000. WIOD 2016 release divides the economy into 53 sectors according to the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) classification structure, an international reference classification of all productive activities. We track changes in the sector called Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply in the WIOD structure, by modelling monetary fluxes coming to this sector as inputs to generate electricity with a given technology. To obtain a trustworthy representation of the future post-carbon economy, it is necessary to incorporate technological changes likely to take place in the modelled sector. However, IOA is frequently criticised for its constant production coefficients. Although this can be a virtue in the 142