Page - 143 - in Critical Issues in Science, Technology and Society Studies - Conference Proceedings of the 17th STS Conference Graz 2018

context of analysing short-term economic effects, where production technologies cannot be replaced instantaneously and thus fixed coefficients allow the evaluation of short-run effects of supply shocks, in the long-term this creates contradictions as one can assume significant effects of substitutions in supply and technological development in general. This is also the case of replacing fossil fuels with RES in the horizon of 2050. Wind and solar power generation technologies will very likely evolve over this period, and assuming unchanged production coefficients would miss an important aspect in the representation of the post-carbon transformation. The construction of an input-output model capturing technological change requires focusing on technical coefficients for intermediate inputs. A technical coefficient is a ratio of input to a given sector to its output, measured in monetary terms (Miller and Blair 2009). Determinants of the technical coefficients cover technological progress (Leontief 1983), but also infrastructure policies, substitution due to relative price changes, as well as industrial structure (Peneder 2003). To get an idea about the determinants, we ask the experts about expected developments of inputs necessary for construction, operation and maintenance of the wind and solar energy producing devices up to 2050. We look for answers to questions regarding estimations of: • Lifespan of renewable (solar and wind) energy producing devices; • Share between capital costs (costs necessary for construction) and variable costs (costs of operation and maintenance) and its expected developments; • Developments in shares of inputs; • Technologies and procedures (institutional changes) that should be applied to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; • Likelihood of the proposed changes. Once technical coefficients and their changes over time are defined, it is possible to build future input-output tables, showing the interacting elements (input-output relations among sectors and associated socioeconomic and environmental accounts) required for a structural representation of the post-carbon economy. Translating the answers into the input-output logic is done via inserting new sub-sectors in the input-output table – wind and solar energy based production of electricity as part of an aggregate Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector. We split the sector Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply of the WIOD structure into the following components: • Production of electricity by wind • Production of electricity by solar photovoltaic • Production of electricity by fossil fuels • Production of electricity by other sources; Transmission and distribution of electricity; Manufacture of gas, distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; Steam and Air- conditioning supply The sectoral disaggregation is based on input cost shares (i.e. proportions between inputs necessary to construct, operate and maintain wind and solar energy sources, measured in monetary terms, and coming to the sector from other economic sectors) of wind and solar 143