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26 R.Mechler et al.
Theevidencebaseonclimateimpactsisgrowing.AssummarisedinIPCC’sAR5,
impactsofclimatechangehavebeenobservedonallcontinentsandacrossalloceans.
Thereishighconfidencethatworldwideglacialretreat,permafrostthawing,andmass
bleaching of coral reefs can bemainly attributed to climate change (IPCC2014a).
Yet, impacts tohumansystemsandspecificevents aremuchharder toassessdue to
multifactorial causation, and inparticular, sincevulnerability reducingactionshave
beenemployedinmanylocationsandformanyweather-relatedhazards(seechapters
byBouwer2018;Lopezet al. 2018).Therefore, despite the advances, itmaynever
bepossible togenerate a complete inventoryofL&Dattributable to anthropogenic
emissions. Inaddition to theuncertainties inherent in theattributionproblem,a lack
of robust time series data inmany hot spot locations hinders progress in research
and riskmanagement (Huggel et al. 2016b). Thus, policy-advisors andnegotiators
shouldnotexpecttheemergenceoffullyconclusiveevidenceregardingtheinfluence
ofclimatevariability andchangeonspecific incidencesof lossesanddamagesand,
in particular, should not expect the strength of evidence to be equivalent between
events andbetweencountries.
SomeofthemostfrequentlydiscussedapplicationsofattributionscienceforL&D
have beenmade in relation to liability and legal responses.Attribution research is
relevant to private and public administration litigation as well as to breaches of
customary international law—theno-harmprinciple (see chapter bySimlinger and
Mayer2018). In thecaseof litigationbefore anational or international court or tri-
bunal, legal casesare facedwithamyriadof technicaldifficulties,particularlywhat
concerns the issueof causality.Litigation requiresdiligence topreventorminimise
harm, aswell as considering the indirect consequences of harmfulwrongdoing in
additiontodirectimpacts,whicharenormallyconsideredinlitigation.Thus,thecase
ofLliuyaversusRWE,which iscurrently (mid2018) in theevidentiary stagesafter
having been admitted to a higher regional court inGermany, is exemplary in two
regards. It isconsidered thefirstcaseonL&DinGermanyandelsewhere,asseveral
tort-basedcaseshavebeenrejectedby, forexample, courts in theUSA. Italso inno-
vatively seeks remuneration for riskmanagement efforts to be undertaken to avoid
future, irreversible risk (loss of life) associatedwith glacial lake outburst flooding
affectedbyglacial retreat attributedwithhigh confidence to anthropogenic climate
change (see chapter byFrank et al. 2018).Given themany technical difficulties to
be addressed, for legal actions overall, it may be interesting to consider working
withaso-calledmodifiedgeneral causation test—ashasbeendonesuccessfully for
other risk classes, such as tobacco, nuclear risk etc. (see chapter bySimlinger and
Mayer2018).Thiswouldmeanfocusingonproving thatGHGemissionsaregener-
ally capable of causingdamages and that a causal linkbetweenaction anddamage
is probable. Such a rationale would render the requirement to attribute a specific
climaticevent to theemissionsofaspecificpersonorentityunnecessary.Therefore,
a lackofattributionevidencemaynotnecessarilybea limiting factor in some legal
responses.Overall, attribution researchhas thepotential formuchbroader applica-
bility. It has an important role toplay inhelping tounderstand losses anddamages,
includingthroughthequantificationofrisks; investigatingtherelativeimportanceof
differentdriversofchange; and identifying timescalesonwhichsignificant impacts
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima