Page - 66 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

66 L.M.Bouwer to impacts suchfromslow-onsetevents. Informationonextremeweather impacts is available in observation databases on past disasters collected by humanitarian and developmentorganisationsandresearch institutes.Also, recordsofmonetary losses fromextremeweatherarecollectedbytheinsuranceandreinsuranceindustry. In the disastersandclimateresearchcommunity, thepatternsandtrends in thesedatabases have been studied extensively, and therefore several analyses are available in the academic literature onobserved impacts formany locations around theworld, and theseanalysesarediscussed in this chapter. With regard to climate losses and damages, the question iswhether the records ofobserveddisaster losses arefit for thepurposeof comprehensivemonitoringand analysing losses anddamages fromclimate change.Gall (2015) provides a critical review in this respect, and concluded that the scope of these databases needs to be broadened, in particular with respect to slow-onset events, and include other impacts besides direct economic losses, such as indirect impacts and losses.While notexhaustive, thedisaster loss recordsprovideat thismoment thebestopportunity toassessandmonitorchangesinsocioeconomicimpacts,atleastforextremeweather andclimatechange. In addition, many studies have projected future changes in risk from extreme weatherevents, for thepurposeofdisaster riskreductionplanningandclimateadap- tation.These studies also take into account future changes inhazard, exposure and vulnerability, on thebasis ofphysicalmodellingandscenarios (Bouwer2013), and therefore serve to indicatewhat impacts are expected for thenear andmoredistant future, that could informLossandDamagediscussions. Asshowninotherchapterssuchas thecontributionbyJamesetal. (2018),wider definitionsandviewpointsonLossandDamagecanincludetheimpactsfrompresent- dayclimate,sowithoutmuchinfluenceofclimatechange.Thisimpliesthatlossesand damages could also include impacts fromextremeweather that are not attributable toanthropogenicclimatechange,butsimplyto(baseline)riskthatoccursbecauseof occurrenceofextremeweather.This riskhasoccurredalways, regardlessofclimate change,oroccursbecauseofnaturalvariabilityor increasedexposureofpeopleand capital. In this context, understandingpresent-day risks fromextremeweather, and understanding theroleofdriversofchanges in that risk, is important fordiscussions onLoss andDamage.These drivers and theway they are understood to determine risk,ultimatelyalsodetermine the scopeof lossesanddamages fromtheseextreme events. ThereseemstobesomeagreementthattheLossandDamagedebatereferstoresid- ualimpacts,i.e.afteradaptation(“lossesbeyondadaptation”)(seeJamesetal.2018). Also, losses anddamagescan refer to actual impacts that havealreadyoccurred, as well as potential future risks of further impacts and damages (see introduction by Mechler et al. 2018). In this context, all drivers ofweather related risks shouldbe considered.This is because non-climatic drivers of risk (influencing exposure, and vulnerability)may consciously(throughadaptation)orunconsciouslybeinfluenced,asforinstancewith increasingdevelopmentandwealthysocietiesbecomebetterprotectedfromextreme weatherhazards.