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70 L.M.Bouwer
of the studies that applied loss normalisation also refer to “attribution of changes
in impacts.”This is however different from the formal detection and attribution as
approachedbytheclimateresearchcommunity,whichusuallyreferstothedetection5
of statistically significant changes in climate variables, and attribution6 of these
changestonaturalforcingandanthropogenicgreenhousegasemissions.Inthecaseof
studiesondisaster losses,attributiontakestwosteps:firstattributionof theobserved
changeindisasterlossestosocioeconomicdrivers(exposure,vulnerability),andnext
establish whether there is a remaining trend, that could be attributed to changing
weather hazard conditions, usually regardless of human causes (e.g. Huggel et al.
2013).Other linesofresearch, includeso-calledeventattributionstudiesputadirect
link between the occurrence of individual extreme events and increased likelihood
of theseevents that isdue toanthropogenic forcing. Ina fewcases, also the impacts
or losses fromtheseeventsare included in themodels (e.g.Pall et al. 2011),butnot
changes inother variables beside climate, such as changes in catchment hydrology
or flooddefences thatwould also influenceflood risk (Schaller et al. 2016). These
event attributionstudiesare furtherdiscussed in thechapterbyJameset al. (2018).
3.3.2 AnalysisofLossTrends
Anumber of assessments is available of the current understanding of disaster loss
recordsonthebasisofindividualstudies,mostnotablytheIPCCSREXreport(IPCC
2012), including the chapter on human and ecosystem impacts byHandmer et al.
(2012), and in the contribution fromWorking Group II to the Fifth Assessment
report, including the chapters on attribution by Cramer et al. (2014), and on the
insurance sector in thechapterbyArent et al. (2014).Throughout thesechapters, it
is acknowledged that losses fromnaturalhazardshave increased, regardlessofcau-
sationoftheincrease.Inaddition,it isnotedthatlossesfromweather-relatedhazards
have increasedmore rapidly thanfromgeophysical events suchasearthquakes (e.g.
Handmer et al. 2012). The assessments of IPCChave concluded the following on
thecausesof theupward trends in losses fromextremeweather events:
Long-term trends in economicdisaster losses adjusted forwealth andpopulation increases
havenotbeenattributedtoclimatechange,butaroleforclimatechangehasnotbeenexcluded
(SREXSPM, IPCC2012).
Economic losses due to extreme weather events have increased globally, mostly due to
increase inwealthandexposure,withapossible influenceofclimatechange (Crameret al.
2014).
5Detection:“Detectionofchangeisdefinedastheprocessofdemonstratingthatclimateorasystem
affected by climate has changed in somedefined statistical sense,without providing a reason for
that change” (IPCC2013:Annex IIIGlossary).
6Attribution:“Attributionisdefinedastheprocessofevaluatingtherelativecontributionsofmultiple
causalfactorstoachangeoreventwithanassignmentofstatisticalconfidence”(IPCC2013:Annex
IIIGlossary).
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima