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74 L.M.Bouwer
noted that there is insufficient evidence7 toconclude that severeconvectiveweather
hasalreadybecomemore frequent.
Otherweather hazards forwhich positive loss trends are found include studies
on tropical storms.WhileNordhaus (2010) foundapositive trend forUShurricane
losses after normalisation, Bouwer andBotzen (2011) found no trend using other
loss recordsandalternativenormalisationof the sameevents.The studybyEstrada
etal. (2015)usedanalternativeformulation,assuminganon-linearrelationbetween
changesinexposureandlosses,whichhasnotyetbeenconfirmedbyotherstudies,nor
hastherebeenasufficientexplanationforthecauseoftheremainingincreaseinlosses
(Hallegatte 2015). Schmidt et al. (2009) foundan increasing trend inUShurricane
losses after normalisation since 1970, but this is likely due to natural variability
(Bouwer 2011a); in this case the low frequency of landfalling hurricanes in the
NorthAtlanticandCaribbeaninthe1970s,andthesubsequent increase in the1990s
and early 2000s. For river flooding some studies find increases after normalisation
(Fengqinget al. 2005;Changet al. 2009), but theseare relatively short-lived, and it
is unclearwhether these increases are related to changes infloodhazard driven by
naturalvariabilityor anthropogenicclimatechange.
Finally,therearesomestudiesthatindicateincreasinglossesafternormalisationat
theglobal level, forseveral typesofweatherextremes(Milleretal.2008;Neumayer
andBarthel2011),but these trendsarealsoover recent times(over30yearsor less),
andhereit isalsounclearwhetheranyrelatedchangesinhazardaredrivenbynatural
variabilityoranthropogenicclimatechange.
3.3.3 InterpretationofDriversofLosses
As shownabove, few studies find signals in losses beyond the driver of increasing
exposure.Less isknownabout theroleofvulnerabilitychanges thatpotentiallymay
playanimportantrole.Associetiesbecomewealthier, theyarelikelytostart toinvest
moreinriskreductionandadaptation,therebyreducingimpactsfromweatherrelated
hazards.Thismayresult in reduced lossesover time.Fornormalisationstudies, this
may imply that accounting for increases inexposureonly,woulddownplay the role
ofanyothercontributing factors, includinganthropogenicclimatechange (Nicholls
2011). Indeed, therearestudies that showthatespecially lossof lifeandalsomone-
tary losseshavedecreased,despite increasingexposure(MechlerandBouwer2015;
Bahinipati and Patnaik 2015; Kreibich et al. 2017; Bouwer and Jonkman 2018).
Jongmanet al. (2015) for instance stress that despite the fact that total losses from
riverfloodinghaveincreased,fatalitiesandmonetisedlossesasashareofpopulation
andGDP, have fallen over past decades. However, the question is how significant
these changes in vulnerability are, compared to the very rapid increase in expo-
sure (Bouwer2011b).While lossof life clearlyhasbenefitted fromimprovedearly
7“There is lowconfidence inobserved trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such as tornadoes
andhailbecauseofdata inhomogeneitiesandinadequacies inmonitoringsystems”(IPCC2012:8).
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima