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3 ObservedandProjected Impacts fromExtremeWeatherEvents… 75
warning and evacuation, andvulnerability has substantially declined (Mechler and
Bouwer2015;BouwerandJonkman2018),monetarylossescanonlybesubstantially
prevented from improved protection, such as through flood prevention, improved
buildingconstruction,andalternativeagriculturalpractices.Therearehoweververy
few longitudinal studies that haveassessed these effects over sufficiently longperi-
odsover time, toestablish the long-termseffects, compared to increasingexposure.
Thestudies indicatingsubstantial reductions inmonetary losseshaveconsideredthe
most recent decades (Jongman et al. 2015;Kreibich et al. 2017), andwhile efforts
mayhavebeen successful at improving the current situation, they canhardlymake
upforsubstantialdevelopment invulnerableareas thathasbeentakenplaceover the
last100years.
Finally, for attributing changes in extreme weather impacts, in the context of
LossandDamage, any remaining trendafternormalisationandafter accounting for
vulnerabilityreductionwouldneedtobedemonstratedtohavearelationwithchanges
inextremeweatherhazards.Andthischangeinextremeweatherhazardinturnshould
beattributedtoanthropogenicclimatechange.Table3.3summarisestheresultsfrom
thereviewof lossnormalisationstudies (Table3.2),aswellas theobservedchanges
in weather extremes (Table 3.1). While for several weather extremes, increasing
occurrencehasbeenobserved,andoftenalsoattributedtoanthropogenicgreenhouse
gas forcing (Table 3.1), these changes are not reflected in loss records, or at least
cannot be recognised.Nosubstantial evidence is present for long-term increases in
normalised losses from these types of extreme weather, based on quantified loss
records. And while a few studies show that losses from convective weather may
have increased, in particular losses fromhail and thunderstorm events (Changnon
2001; Changnon 2009a;Kunz et al. 2009; Sander et al. 2013), these are yet to be
linked to structural changes in theoccurrenceof convectiveweather events, related
togreenhousegas forcing (IPCC2012,2013).
Table3.3 Comparisonofchanges inextremeweatherhazards (regardlessofhumancontribution)
andobservedchange in losses
Type Increase inextremeweather
hazard? Increase inobserved losses?
Heatwave Very likely Unknown
Heavyprecipitation Likely Unknown
Riverfloods Limited/mediumevidence No increase
Drought Lowconfidence Unknown
Tropical cyclones Lowconfidence No increase
Extra-tropical cyclones Likelypolewardshift No increase
Extremesea-levels Likely Unknown
Wildfires Unknown Noincrease
Convectiveweather Unknown Possible increase?
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima