Page - 88 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

88 T.Schinkoet al. atdifferentscaleshasbeenconsideredtobebothshapedbynaturalclimatevariability and climate change, aswell as by socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability. This evolved framing has opened doors for considering DRR as an important part of climateadaptationandleadtonovelconsiderationsorganisedaroundCRM,involving themanagementoftotalclimate-relatedriskincludinganycurrentadaptationdeficits (Joneset al. 2014). ToinformthinkingandactiononCRM,asortof‘climaterisklanguage’hasbeen developedbyIPCC’sworkinggroup II in its5thassessment report (IPCC2014). In doing so,workinggroup II has built on IPCC’smultiple lines of evidencephiloso- phy, including collating empirical evidence on impacts and riskswith information on adaptation options, and the modelling of future risks, as well as using expert judgment. The IPCC report succinctly summarises climate risks and the potential (aswellas the limits) foradaptationforkeyrisksandthree timesteps(present,near- and long-term2and4°C). Whileadaptationconstraintsorbarriersaredefinedas“factorsthatmakeitharder toplanandimplementadaptationactions,”anadaptation limit is“thepointatwhich an actor’s objectives or system’s needs cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions.” (Klein et al. 2014) Furthermore, soft and hard limits to adaptation can be distinguished. The latter concept describes limits where no adaptive actions arepossible to avoid intolerable risks,while in the former concept adaptiveactionmightbepossibleinthefuturebutnomeasuresarecurrentlyavailable (IPCC2014). The distinction between barriers and limits to adaptation aswell as between soft andhard limits is coherent in theory, yetmanydifficultiesmight arise in operationalising it in practice.What determines when a limit is breached and who decides what the limits are? For example, Fig. 4.2 visualizes risks from sea level riseandhigh-watereventsaswell as thecorrespondingadaptationpotential in SmallIslandStates.Buildingontheidentificationofkeyhazarddrivers,sealevelrise and cyclones interactingwith high tide events, it finds the level of risk, essentially for coastal flooding, to currently be at medium levels and increasing with future warming toveryhigh levels, particularly for the4 °Cwarming scenario.While the riskbar,whichis theproductof theIPCCC’smeta-analysisofavailable literatureon climate-related risks in SIDS, shows overall risk (given adaptation actions taken), this visualization also teases out the potential for additional adaptation efforts in termsof further reducing risk. IPCC’sanalysisapplied tokeyworld regionsshows that thepotential foradapta- tion is large formany regions and suggests thatmany risks are avoidable (although actionsarenotyet fully implemented thusdefininga soft adaptation limit).Yet, for someregionsandrisks(particularlyinnaturalsystems)andathigherlevelsofwarm- ing, limits toadaptationarefoundtobereached,andtheseclimate-relatedrisksmay becomeunavoidable (seechaptersbyHandmerandNalau2018;Haqueet al. 2018; vanderGeest et al. 2018;Landauer andJuhola2018).Anexample is thebleaching of tropical coral reefsbeyond1.5/2and4°C,wherenooptions for adaptationexist (hencedefiningahard limit toadaptation) (Magrinet al. 2014).