Page - 116 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

116 R.A. Jameset al. If attribution science is to be helpful in this controversial policy space, scien- tistsmustnotonlypush theboundariesof theirphysical scientificanalyses,butalso improvetheirunderstandingofpolicymechanisms,andthemotivations,perceptions, andknowledgeofpolicy-makersandpractitioners. Interdisciplinaryresearch incol- laborationwith social scientists, and transdisciplinary studieswith stakeholders in policy and practice, are fundamental to identifywhether there are entry points for physical attribution science. In response to thisneed, theauthorshavebeen investi- gatingthepotential relevanceofattributionscienceforL&DbyattendingUNFCCC meetings (James et al. 2014a; Parker et al. 2015; Otto et al. 2015a), interviewing stakeholders about attribution (Parker et al. 2017a), playing participatory games aboutattributionscienceand its role inL&D(Parkeret al. 2016), andmorebroadly analysingperspectivesofwhatL&Dsignifies (Boydet al. 2017).This researchhas highlighted thechallengeofapplyingattributionscience inacontextwhere it isdif- ficult to evendiscuss climate change science (James et al. 2014a). There aremany vestedinterestsintheoutcomesofattributionresearch,and,fornegotiatorsofclimate policy, clarityonexactlywhatcanandcannotbeattributedmightnotbeconsidered helpful. Unsurprisingly, then, our research also suggests that stakeholders to the L&D debate have quite different understandings ofwhat can and cannot be attributed to anthropogenicclimatechange(Parkeretal.2017a).Yet,wefindthatattributionisan issuewhich recurs innegotiations: and there is a risk that,without improvedunder- standing,policyplanningcouldproceedbasedonassumptionsaboutthescience,and then laterfindthat theevidenceavailable iseitherstrongerorweaker thanexpected. In thischapter,werevisit thequestionofwhetherandhowattributionsciencemight be useful for L&Dpolicy and practice, first examining existing understandings of attributioninL&Dpolicydiscussions,thenoutliningthescienceitselfandwhatitcan offer,andfinally turningtopotentialapplications.Wehopetoopenupopportunities formore informeddialoguebetween researchers, policy-makers, andpractitioners: helpingscientists tounderstand theL&Dpolicycontext, theperceptionsand impli- cations of attribution, helping policy-makers and practitioners to understandwhat the science canoffer, and identifying areaswhichmight require further integration forprogress (seeBox5.1 forkeymessages).