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142 R.A. Jameset al.
climate change (Hulme et al. 2011). Referring again to Fig. 5.9, it is clear that
some countries and regions havemore data available than others, andwhilst this
is not the only factor that determines confidence in attribution studies (Otto et al.
2013), the strengthof evidencewill continue tovarybetween regions, andbetween
climate change impacts. The discussion about who is most deserving of funding
raises ethical questionswhichcannotbeansweredbyscientists, andhighlights that
incorporatingattributionscience intoasystemfordistributingfundingwouldnotbe
straightforward. In thefinal sectionweexplore apotentially less controversial, and
perhapsmorefundamentalwayinwhichthesciencecanbeusedinhelpingtodecide
whichactionsmight address lossesanddamages.
5.4.4 AnalysingDriversofL&DtoInformPracticalActions
toAvert,Minimise,andAddressLossesandDamages
Rather than being used to help answer political and ethical questions aboutwho
shouldpay,andwhoshouldreceivesupport(seechapterbyWallimann-Helmeretal.
2018),attributionsciencecouldinsteadhelptoanswerpracticalquestionsabouthow
to spend themoney:How should risksbemanaged?What canbedone tominimise
andaddresslossesanddamages?Whichactionscanbetakentohelppeopletorecover
fromL&D? Inorder to prepare for changing risks, it is fundamental to understand
their causes, including drivers of changes in hazard, as well as vulnerability and
exposure.Anthropogenicclimatechangeis justonedriverofchanginghazard,buta
fundamentaldriverwhichmustbeincorporatedintoriskanalysesinordertoidentify
riskmanagement optionswhichwill bemost effective in a changing climate (see
Mechler and Schinko 2016; chapter by Schinko et al. 2018). As demonstrated in
Sect. 5.3, attribution science is focused on establishing causality and, alongside
other climate change research, is an important element in a toolkit for climate risk
management.
From a climate riskmanagement perspective, the key is to be able to quantify
current risks and how thesemay evolve in the future in a changing climate (and,
more broadly, a changingworld). The importance of future climatemodel projec-
tionsisfrequentlyhighlightedwithreferencetoadaptationplanning(e.g.Giorgietal.
2009)and,more recently,with reference toplanning toaddress lossesanddamages
(Surminski andLopez 2015). It is also increasingly recognised that, to understand
risk, climate projections should be combinedwith projections of future changes in
exposureandvulnerability (Mechler andBouwer2015).Attribution sciencecanbe
acomplementarysourceofevidence,which(a)provides importantadditional infor-
mationabout changing risk in thepresenceof uncertainty, (b) offers an assessment
of how risks are changing now (whilst future projectionsmight not be relevant for
30 years or more), and (c) helps to diagnose the causes of losses and damages,
which couldbeuseful in prioritising actions to reduce risk.Theneed to assess sci-
ence investigating the roleof climateandnon-climatedrivers in recenthigh-impact
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima