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5 Attribution:HowIs ItRelevant forLoss… 143
events, and how those drivers are changing across time and spatial scales, in order
to informadaptationandriskmanagement,hasbeenrecognisedasakeypriority for
the next IPCC report (RC/RCCC2017).Herewegive a fewexamples to illustrate
the importanceof this approach.
InEastAfrica,manyclimatemodels suggest that the regionwill becomewetter
in future (Shongwe et al. 2011; James et al. 2014b), whichmight imply the need
to adapt towetter conditions, and potential for losses and damages from extreme
precipitationorflooding (Shongweetal. 2011;Tayloret al. 2013).However,obser-
vationssuggest that therehasbeenarecent increase indrought (Rowelletal.2015),
andanalysisof theclimateprocessesassociatedwithprecipitationdeclinesuggest it
couldbe causedbywarmingof the IndianOcean,which is expectedunder anthro-
pogenic climate change (Copsey et al. 2006;Williams and Funk 2011;Williams
etal.2012).Anattributionstudyof thedriversof theclimatehazards that resultedin
theextremedrought in2010–11 (Lott et al. 2013) showed that itwas influencedby
both climate change andnatural variability (with an important role for theElNino
SouthernOscillation).Bycombiningevidencefromattributionresearchwithobser-
vationalevidence,physicalunderstanding,andfutureprojections, it seemsclear that
adaptationandL&DplanningforEastAfricashouldnotassumewetterfutures(Funk
2011),andshouldstrengthenmeasures to respondtodrought,whichcouldcontinue
tooccurdue tonaturalvariability, andmaybeamplifiedbyclimatechange.
Another reason that attribution research canprovide important evidence to help
address losses anddamages, is that it offers an assessment of how risk is changing
now. Formany decision-makers, information about how climatemight change in
30 years is not relevant because their planning horizons are much shorter (Jones
etal. 2017).This is true for severalof theapproacheswhichhavebeensuggested to
address losses and damages. For example, there has been a great deal of emphasis
on risk pooling schemes and (re)insurance. These systems rely on estimates of the
probabilityofextremeweathereventsbasedonhistoricaldata,whichmaynolonger
be relevant in a changing climate. Attribution studies can provide an estimate of
the current probability of extremeweather events. Finally, the above has focused
on the hazard component of climate riskmanagement but attribution science can
alsobe extended toprovide relevant informationon thevulnerability and exposure
components. This principle is demonstrated by considering the impact of different
responses to two category 4 tropical cyclones inMozambique (Benessene 2007;
UNISDR2010).This showedsignificantly less lossof life inamore recentevent in
2007compared to2000,asa resultofbetterearlywarningsystemsreducinghuman
exposure to ahazardof similarmagnitude.Another examplebyOtto et al. (2015b)
showedthatclimatechangehadnotaltered the likelihoodof theprecipitationdeficit
associated with the 2014–15 droughts in the Sao Paolo area. Thus higher losses
in this case compared to earlier events could not be attributed to a change in the
hazardand sowereattributable tohighervulnerability andexposure resulting from
socio-economic changes. These examples demonstrate that attribution science can
beuseful toguide thedesignof improved future responses toclimate-related risks.
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima