Page - 167 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

6 ThePoliticsof (andBehind) theUNFCCC’sLoss… 167 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1 2 3 4 5 6.1 6.2 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Conference of the Parties (number) AOSIS EU LDCs Dev.ing (other) Umbrella Group Fig.6.3 EvolutionofPartygroupings/coalitions.NoteDev.ing(other)referstoG77&Chinaminus AOSIS. SourceOwnelaborationbasedonBöhmelt (2013) Delegationscomposedofa smallnumberofpeopleonlyareunlikely topossess the range of technical expertise needed to followdifferent negotiation streams and are physicallyunabletocoversimultaneousorexhaustinglylongsessions(Chasek2005; MichaelowaandMichaelowa2012).Thesmaller thedelegation, the less itwill also beable toparticipate in the informalsideofUNFCCCnegotiations (where themost contentiousissuesarelikelytobesolved)andtoexploitthenetworkingopportunities offeredbyCOPs. AOSIS’ “issue-specificpower” is evidentwhenconsidering the evolutionof the group’s delegations at COPs. A comparison among the sizes of UNFCCCParty- groupingsbetween1995and2011(ownelaborationbasedonBöhmelt (2013)6 con- firmsAOSISas thesmallestone,with its size increasingat a slowerpacecompared toothernon-Annex1Parties (Fig.6.3).7 Althoughsomeauthors consider sizeasan indicatorofbargaining skills (Weiler 2012), other non-material resources like knowledge and expertise influence Par- ties’ capacity at thenegotiating table.Developingcountries are typically ascribeda “capacity gap”, only partially alleviated by the support offered by non-state actors (Schroeder et al. 2012). The case ofAOSIS is somewhat different as the personal leadershipof its negotiators and the early engagement ofNGOsasknowledgebro- kers turned thegroup intooneof themostvocalandproactive inclimate talks.This is at least truewhen considering somekey issues like the 1.5 °C target, adaptation andL&D, onwhich the group has beenmore cohesive.On topics of specific con- cern,membershavestartedtoincreasinglynegotiateoutofthegroup,forinstanceon 6Latest availabledata. 7Weare aware that amore accurate considerationofAOSIS’ resource-endowment inL&Dnego- tiationswould require disaggregated data on the number of delegates effectivelyworking on the issue, tobecomparedwith their counterparts inothergroups.Unfortunately this informationdoes notyet exist.