Page - 309 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

12 IntegratedDisasterRiskManagementandAdaptation 309 discharge itcanaccommodate.Threeoptionswere takenforwardfor furtherevalua- tionusingtheDAPP.Thefigurescorecard(Box12.5)showsthatPathways1,3,6,and 7exhibit thebest targeteffect.Option4starts toperformunacceptably(notreaching the 1:440objective) after 40–50years and thus requires a stageddecision tomove toOption2C;Option2Cbyitself reaches the targetby2095–2105,andonlyOption 1will enable the target tobemetgoingbeyond100years.Theapproachof adapta- tionpathwayshasbeenadopted in thenationalcoastalguidance. InBangladesh, the adaptationpathwayswereused todevelopanadaptiveplan inspiredby theadaptive deltamanagement approach in theNetherlands.Theplanshouldensure longtermwaterandfoodsecurity,economicgrowthandenvironmental sustainabilitywhile effectivelycopingwithnaturaldisasters,climatechangeandotherdeltaissuesthroughrobust, adaptiveand integratedstrategies, andequitablewatergovernance (BangladeshDeltaPlan, inprep;www.bangladeshdeltaplan.org). This aim illustrates an important difference in the application of adaptation pathways in the Netherlands and Bangladesh, despite the resemblance in terms of geographic, hydrological, physiographic and climatic vulnerability. While the BangladeshDeltaPlan focuseson enabling socio-economicdevelopment and food security, theDutchDelta Plan is oriented atprotecting the socio-economic system and increasingecologicalvalueof theDutchwater system. InBangladesh the focus is thus on investments for achieving development goals that should be robust or adaptive under uncertain changing conditions. The difference is also expressed in different criteria that are used to assess risk and evaluate pathways. In addition to floodrisk,criteriasuchaspoverty,health,andgenderareconsidered inBangladesh. Like in the Netherlands, the adaptive plan presents preferred strategies/pathways thatexistofshort-term(<2030),mid-term(2030–2050)andlong-term(2050–2100) strategies.Theshort-termstrategiesaimtoaddresspresentandnearfutureneedsand development targets to ensure foodandwater security inorder tobecomeamiddle incomecountry.The long-termstrategies arebasedon two iconic end-points, envi- sioningadelta that isfixedandwherewater iscontrolledwithdikesandpumps,ora delta thathas still dynamicswithnature-basedsolutionand landusemeasures.The BangladeshDeltaPlanpathwaysare still under constructionandneed further elab- oration to enable implementation. The Bangladesh Planning Commission (2017) published initial results. Regarding disaster riskmanagement for the lowerKulna region, theydescribe apathway that startswith constructionof sea dykes thatmay reachacceptablerisklevelsupto2050,andcanthenbecombinedwithastormsurge barrier.