Page - 310 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

310 W.J.WouterBotzenet al. Box 12.5 Adaptation pathways developed for Hutt River City Centre Upgrade Project,New Zealand Option 1 Option 2C, Option 4 Existing situation High Emissions (A2) median 2015 2115 High Emissions (A2) 90th percentile Low Emissions (2deg) Median 2015 2040 2095 2015 2050 >2115 2045 2105 2095 Transfer staƟon to new policy acƟon AdaptaƟon Tipping Point of a policy acƟon Policy acƟon effecƟve 1 2 4 5 6 Pathway Social Impacts- Target effects ----++ Transport impacts Environ- mental impacts +++ ++++ 3 Sideeffects Discharge of 1:440 protection level (cumec) ---+ ++++ +++ ----++ ++++ ++++ 0- ++ + --+ ++++ +++ ---++ +++ ++++ 7 ----++ ++++ ++++ RelaƟve Costs $$$$ $$ $$$$ $ $$$ $$$$ $$$$$ 280023001815 3200 Main effects The Hutt River City Centre Upgrade Project: the adaptation pathways map shows options,scenarios,decisionmoments,relativecostsofoptionsandpotentialsideeffects requiring consideration.Relative impacts are indicatedwith− and++;− is negative impact and +positive impact. All pathways except pathway 5 have negative social impacts as landhas tobepurchased. Option 1: A 90m river channel and 50m berm; right and left stopbanksmeets the standardover100years inall scenarios;cost$267m.Option2C:A90mriverchannel 25mberm;properties tobepurchased;costof$143million.Option4:70mriverchan- nel; 30 years of floodprotection; lower level of protection (2300 cumecs); properties purchasedafter20years;cost$114muntil2035.Stagedoption:Option4toOption2C will cost anadditional$68million; total cost$182million). SourceGenerated by the PathwaysGenerator (http://pathways.deltares.nl/) based on (BoffaMiskellLtd2015; Infometrics andPSConsulting2015).SourceLawrenceand Haasnoot (2017)