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356 A.MarkandyaandM.González-Eguino
(UNEP2016). It states that the current internationally accepted best estimates for
adaptationcostsare in theUS$70billiontoUS$100billionperyearrangefordevel-
oping countries by 2050, according to aWorldBank (2010) study. This compares
with the rangeofUS$147–970 in theTables14.3and14.4.TheUNEPreportnotes,
however, that theWorldBank(2010) study isoutdatedandmore recentworkbased
ontwoIAMs(AD-RICEandAD-WITCH)comesupwithestimatesofUS$200–450
billion (AD-WITCH) andUS$570–970 billion (AD-RICE). Thus, our range from
theBoselloet al. analysis is similar to thatof theUNEP(2016) report.
Other data on costs of adaptation andonL&Ddamagesworth noting areBond
(2016)andRichardsandSchalatek (2017),whocite the followingestimates:
• UNEP’sAdaptationGapReport(2014)estimatestheindicativecostsofadaptation
and the residualdamages (lossesanddamages) forLDCsat~USD50billion/year
by 2025/2030 and possibly double this value (USD100 billion/year) by 2050 at
2°C.
• Baarsch et al. (2015) suggestLoss andDamagecosts (not needs) for developing
countriesof around$400bn in2030, rising to$1–2 trillionby2050.
• DARA(2012)estimates thesecosts tobe$4 trillion in2030.
• AMCEN/UNEPAfrica’sAdaptationGap2Report (2015)with all cost effective
adaptation inAfrica lossesanddamagesareestimatedat~USD100bnperyearby
2050 forwarmingbelow2°C,at leastdouble that ifwarminggoesabove4°C.
Theseestimatescanbecomparedtotheresidualdamagesfigureswehavegivenin
Sect.14.2,whichrangefrom$20–580billionin2030to$1.1–1.7trillionin2050.As
Bond(2016)alsonotes,furtherworkisrequiredonthemethodologiesandprocesses
for estimatingL&Dandassociatedfinance needs, aswell as non-economic losses.
It is in relation to these that thenext sectionaddresses someof thekeyoutstanding
issues.These include (i) issues relating to the timehorizonunderconsiderationand
related uncertainty, and (ii) the relationship between adaptation expenditures and
L&D.
14.5 Uncertainties in theEstimationofFutureDamages
fromClimateChange inIAMs
Recently, significant debate has emerged about the uncertainties (Pindyck 2013)
associatedwith thequantificationof thedamages fromclimatechangeby IAMs. In
theprevioussection,weprovidedarangefor theresidualdamagesunder“standard”
climatic conditions. In this section, we show these damages (and, therefore, the
residual damages)would change significantly if “tipping points” are considered in
the analysis (Lenton et al. 2008, 2012). There ismuch uncertainty related to these
processesand,therefore,theyhaverecentlystartedtobecapturedinIAMliteraturein
termsof implications for adaptation (Stern2016)andmitigation (González-Eguino
et al. 2016, 2017).We illustrate this through two key sources of uncertainty: the
EquilibriumClimateSensitivity (ECS)parameter and thedamage function.
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima