Page - 6 - in options, Volume summer 2018

research news 6 iiasa research www.iiasa.ac.atoptions ◼ summer 2018 Ethane and propane emissions have been underestimated Emissions of ethane and propane have been underestimated by more than 50% in community-based emission inventories, according to new research coauthored by Lena Höglund Isaksson. For the first time, researchers have found explanations for ‘missing’ emissions, such as venting of waste gas during oil production and misrepresentation of gas composition. The databases created also show geographical emissions distributions and trends in atmospheric concentrations. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/Ethane-18 2°C rise doubles the population exposed to multiple climate risks The number of people affected by multiple climate change risks could double if the global temperature rises by 2°C by 2050, compared to a rise of 1.5°C. At 1.5°C of warming, 16% of the population of the world, 1.5 billion people, will have moderate-to-high levels of multisector risk. At 2°C of warming, this almost doubles to 29%, or 2.7 billion people, with those in poverty most at risk. The researchers say this underlines the need to minimize warming and target socioeconomic development in the hotspot regions. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/Multiple-climate- risks-18 Achieving healthy, climate-friendly, affordable diets in India New research led by IIASA researcher Narasimha Rao has shown that it might be possible to reduce micronutrient deficiencies in India in an affordable way, while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Switching from white rice to coarse cereals, and increasing the share of pulses and dark green vegetables could reduce deficiencies in protein, iron, zinc, and vitamin A, which can be as high as 90%. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/India-diet-18 Education, not income, the best predictor of a long life Rising income and the subsequent improved standards of living, have long been thought to be the most important factors contributing to a long and healthy life. However, new research from Wolfgang Lutz and Endale Kebede, from IIASA and the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) has shown that instead, the level of education a person has is a much better predictor of life expectancy. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/Education-life- expectancy-18 There are several ways to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2100, and new research led by IIASA researcher Joeri Rogelj shows under what conditions this could happen.The paper is the first to look at how socioeconomic conditions such as inequalities, energy demand, and international cooperation might affect the feasibility of achieving these goals. “One of the goals of the Paris Agreement is to limit warming to 1.5°C, but scientific studies mainly looked at the question of limiting warming to 2°C. This study fills this gap and explores how climate change by the end of the 21st century can be brought in line with 1.5°C of warming,” says Rogelj. The researchers modeled scenarios to limit warming under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), including one in which the world pursues sustainability, one in which economic and population growth continue as they have done historically, and another in which the world embraces fossil fuels to fuel economic growth. Strong social and economic inequalities, continued high fossil-fuel use, and poor short- term climate policies emerged as key barriers to achieving the 1.5°C goal. In successful scenarios, zero net greenhouse gas emissions are reached between 2055 and 2075. Energy demand is limited by improving energy efficiency. Bioenergy and other renewable energy technologies make up at least 60% of electricity generation by the middle of the century. Traditional coal use falls to less than 20% of its current levels by 2040 and oil is phased out by 2060. The 1.5°C pathways created as part of the study, will be used by the wider climate change research community to run the most complex coupled climate models to better understand the climatic consequences. HT Further info Rogelj J, Popp A, Calvin KV, Luderer G, Emmerling J, Gernaat D, Fujimori S, Strefler J, et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15153] Joeri Rogelj rogelj@iiasa.ac.at Models show how to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C