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research news
6 iiasa research
www.iiasa.ac.atoptions
◼ summer 2018
Ethane and propane emissions have
been underestimated
Emissions of ethane and propane have been
underestimated by more than 50% in
community-based emission inventories,
according to new research coauthored by Lena
Höglund Isaksson. For the first time,
researchers have found explanations for
‘missing’ emissions, such as venting of waste
gas during oil production and
misrepresentation of gas composition. The
databases created also show geographical
emissions distributions and trends in
atmospheric concentrations.
www.iiasa.ac.at/news/Ethane-18
2°C rise doubles the population
exposed to multiple climate risks
The number of people affected by multiple
climate change risks could double if the global
temperature rises by 2°C by 2050, compared to a
rise of 1.5°C. At 1.5°C of warming, 16% of the
population of the world, 1.5 billion people, will
have moderate-to-high levels of multisector
risk. At 2°C of warming, this almost doubles to
29%, or 2.7 billion people, with those in poverty
most at risk. The researchers say this underlines
the need to minimize warming and target
socioeconomic development in the hotspot
regions.
www.iiasa.ac.at/news/Multiple-climate-
risks-18
Achieving healthy, climate-friendly,
affordable diets in India
New research led by IIASA researcher Narasimha
Rao has shown that it might be possible to
reduce micronutrient deficiencies in India in an
affordable way, while also reducing greenhouse
gas emissions. Switching from white rice to
coarse cereals, and increasing the share of
pulses and dark green vegetables could reduce
deficiencies in protein, iron, zinc, and vitamin A,
which can be as high as 90%.
www.iiasa.ac.at/news/India-diet-18
Education, not income, the best
predictor of a long life
Rising income and the subsequent improved
standards of living, have long been thought to
be the most important factors contributing to a
long and healthy life. However, new research
from Wolfgang Lutz and Endale Kebede, from
IIASA and the Vienna University of Economics
and Business (WU) has shown that instead, the
level of education a person has is a much better
predictor of life expectancy.
www.iiasa.ac.at/news/Education-life-
expectancy-18 There are several ways to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2100, and new research
led by IIASA researcher Joeri Rogelj shows under what conditions this could
happen.The
paper is the first to look at how socioeconomic conditions such as inequalities,
energy demand, and international cooperation might affect the feasibility of achieving
these goals.
“One of the goals of the Paris Agreement is to limit warming to 1.5°C, but scientific
studies mainly looked at the question of limiting warming to 2°C. This study fills this gap
and explores how climate change by the end of the 21st century can be brought in line
with 1.5°C of warming,” says Rogelj.
The researchers modeled scenarios to limit warming under five Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs), including one in which the world pursues sustainability, one in which
economic and population growth continue as they have done historically, and another in
which the world embraces fossil fuels to fuel economic growth.
Strong social and economic inequalities, continued high fossil-fuel use, and poor short-
term climate policies emerged as key barriers to achieving the 1.5°C goal.
In successful scenarios, zero net greenhouse gas emissions are reached between 2055
and 2075. Energy demand is limited by improving energy efficiency. Bioenergy and other
renewable energy technologies make up at least 60% of electricity generation by the middle
of the century. Traditional coal use falls to less than 20% of its current levels by 2040 and
oil is phased out by 2060.
The 1.5°C pathways created as part of the study, will be used by the wider climate
change research community to run the most complex coupled climate models to better
understand the climatic consequences. HT
Further info Rogelj J, Popp A, Calvin KV, Luderer G, Emmerling J, Gernaat D, Fujimori S, Strefler J, et al. (2018)
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change
[pure.iiasa.ac.at/15153]
Joeri Rogelj rogelj@iiasa.ac.at
Models show how to limit global
temperature rise to 1.5°C
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Buch options, Band summer 2018"
options
Band summer 2018
- Titel
- options
- Band
- summer 2018
- Ort
- Laxenburg
- Datum
- 2018
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY-NC 4.0
- Abmessungen
- 21.0 x 29.7 cm
- Seiten
- 28
- Kategorien
- Zeitschriften Options Magazine