Page - 98 - in Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies

energies Article Short-TermForecastingofTotalEnergyConsumption forIndia-ABlackBoxBasedApproach HabeeburRahman1,* , IniyanSelvarasan1 andJahithaBegumA2 1 Institute forEnergyStudies,AnnaUniversity,Chennai600025, India; iniyan777@hotmail.com 2 DepartmentofEducation,GandhigramRural Institute,Dindigul624302, India; jahee_j@yahoo.co.in * Correspondence: thashabee14@gmail.com;Tel.:+91-9751841499 Received: 31October2018;Accepted: 29November2018;Published: 9December2018 Abstract:Continualenergyavailability isoneof theprimeinputs requisite for thepersistentgrowth ofanycountry. ThisbecomesevenmoreimportantforacountrylikeIndia,whichisoneoftherapidly developingeconomies. Thereforeelectricalenergy’sshort-termdemandforecasting isanessential step in theprocess of energyplanning. The intent of this article is topredict theTotal Electricity Consumption (TEC) in industry, agriculture, domestic, commercial, traction railways and other sectorsof India for2030. Themethodologyincludes the familiarblack-boxapproaches for forecasting namelymultiple linear regression (MLR), simple regressionmodel (SRM)alongwith correlation, exponential smoothing, Holt’s, Brown’s and expertmodelwith the input variables population, GDPandGDPper capitausing the softwareusedare IBMSPSSStatistics 20andMicrosoftExcel 1997–2003Worksheet. The input factorsnamelyGDP,populationandGDPpercapitawere taken intoconsideration. Analyseswerealsocarriedout tofindthe importantvariables influencing the energyconsumptionpattern. SeveralmodelssuchasBrown’smodel,Holt’smodel,Expertmodel anddampedtrendmodelwereanalysed. TheTECfor theyears2019,2024and2030were forecasted tobe1,162,453MW,1,442,410MWand1,778,358MWrespectively.WhencomparedwithPopulation, GDPper capita, it is concluded thatGDP foreseesTECbetter. The forecastingof total electricity consumptionfor theyear2030–2031 for India is foundtobe1834349MW.Thereforeenergyplanning ofacountryreliesheavilyuponpreciseproperdemandforecasting. Precise forecasting isoneof the major challenges tomanage in theenergysectorofanynation.Moreover forecasts are important for theeffective formulationofenergy lawsandpolicies inorder toconserve thenatural resources, protect theecosystem,promote thenation’seconomyandprotect thehealthandsafetyof thesociety. Keywords: India;TEC;short-term; forecasting;blackbox 1. Introduction Energy is thedriving forceofanynation. Energysecurityandenergyefficiency is theneedof thehour. Energyconservation,decentralizedenergyplanning techniques seems tobe thesolution tomeet the energy requirements in almost every sector. The installed capacity out of renewable energyduring2012–2013wasaround12.26%andnowlaterduring2017–2018 ithascometoaround 18.8% (www.cea.nic.in) [1]. If this trend stays, it is anticipated that the renewable energy sources wouldcomeforwardtocontributeevenmore innear future,which isagoodsign.Renewableenergy sector isexpandingrapidlyandinparticular ithasalreadygrabbeditsattentiontobe thepotential contributorforsustainableenergysecurity. India isoneamongthemainlyswiftlydevelopingcountries in theplanet. Flourishing industrializationalsorequiresenergytoexcel,which in turnmakes India an energy starving state. At present India depends heavily upon the fossil fuels and also has to expendmore,whereas Indiaalsohasahugepotential for thealternativesourcesofenergy[2]. India is almost certainlyurbanizingquicker. Witha severedevelopmentpredicament in theenergysector, Energies2018,11, 3442;doi:10.3390/en11123442 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies98