Page - 172 - in Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies

Energies2018,11, 2038 Obviously, thebestaccuraciesareobtainedfor theshortestpredictionhorizon(1h),where the most important feature is the consumption at theprevious hour (lag= 1)withmore than 85%of relative importance.However, for therestofpredictionhorizons, themost importantpredictor is,once again, the loadwith lag168h. 4.DirectMarketConsumers DirectConsumers in themarketbypointof supplyor installationare thoseconsumersofelectric energywhopurchaseelectricitydirectlyon theproductionmarket for theirownconsumptionand whomeetsomespecificconditions. Firstly, this section isdealingwith theperformanceof theSpanish Market, specifically theaspects thatare related toDMCtypeofsupply. Secondly, thecomponents that definethepriceof theenergyasaDMCare introduced. Finally, theresults for thecaseofacampus universityareshown. 4.1. LawFramework forDMCandMarketPerformance Law24/2013of26December [41]defines theDirectConsumers in theSpanishMarket inarticle 6.g)andestablishes itsrightsandobligations. Theactivityof thesesubjects isregulatedinRoyalDecree 1955/2000of1December [42],whichregulates theactivitiesof transportation,distribution, retailing, supply,andauthorizationproceduresofPowerSystems. Tostart theactivityofqualifiedconsumer in themarket, the interestedpartymustsendseveraldocuments todifferentofficialbodiesandfulfilla seriesof requirements, suchas: haveprovidedtheSystemOperatorwithsufficientguarantee tocover economicobligationsandtohave thestatusofmarketagent, amongothers. Currently, the listofDMC includesaround200consumers,mostof themsmallandmediumcompanies (see [43]). TheDay-aheadMarket, aspartof theelectricpowerproductionmarket, aimstocarryoutelectric power transactions for thenextdaybyresolvingoffers andbids that areofferedbymarket agents. TheMarketOperator ranksandmatchessellingofferswithbuyingbids forelectricity (receivedbefore 10:00a.m. onthedaybefore thedispatch),usingthesimpleorcomplexmatchingmethod,according tosimpleor thereareoffers that incorporatecomplexconditions. Accordingto that,DMCmustmaketheirbids for thedayD(dayofdispatch)before10:00a.m. of dayD-1(daybefore thedispatch), sonearly two-day-aheadforecastingmodels for thedemandare needed.Afterthisprocess, theSystemOperatorestablishedtheDailyBaseProgram,whichispublished at12:00,basedontheprogramresultingfromtheMarketOperatorprogramfortheDay-AheadMarket andthecommunicationof theexecutionofbilateral contracts. TheIntradayMarketaimstomeet the DefinitiveViableDailyProgramthroughthepresentationofenergyoffersandbidsbythemarkets agents. The final scheduling is the result of the aggregation of all the firm transactions that are formalizedforeachprogrammingperiodasaconsequenceof theviabledailyprogramandmarket matchingintradayoncethe technical restrictions identifiedhavebeenresolvedandthesubsequent rebalancinghas takenplace. Finally,generationanddemanddeviationsarising fromtheclosingof the finalschedulingaremanagedbytheSystemOperator throughbalancemanagementproceduresand theprovisionofsecondaryandtertiaryregulationservices. 4.2. Price of theEnergyParticipatingasaDMC The final price of the energy consumed as a DMC consists of three clearly differentiated components,asdescribedbelow. • Regulated prices: these are prices set by the State and also depend on the supply rate. Thiscomponent includesaccess fees, capacitypaymentsandlosscoefficients. Thiscomponent does not depend on the type of supply, thus the corresponding costwould be the same for consumers throughretailersandDMC. 172