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Energies 2018,11, 213
managed.Accordingto theMckinseyGlobal Institute [14], theAIcouldbeapplied in theelectricity
industry forpowerdemandandsupplyprediction,becauseapowergrid loadforecastaffectsmany
stakeholders. Based on the short-term forecast (1–2 days ahead), power generation systems can
determinewhichpowersources toaccess in thenext24h,andtransmissiongridscantimelyassign
appropriate resources to clients basedon current transmission requirements. Moreover, using an
appropriatedemandandsupply forecast, electricity retailers can calculate energypricesbasedon
estimateddemandmoreefficiently.
The powerful data collection and analysis technologies are becomingmore available on the
market, sopowercompaniesarebeginningtoexplorea feasibilityofobtainingmoreaccurateresults
usingAI inshort-termloadforecasts. For instance, in theUnitedKingdom(UK), theNationalGrid
iscurrentlyworkingwith theDeepMind[15,16],aGoogle-ownedAIteam,which isusedtopredict
thepowersupplyanddemandpeaks in theUKbasedonthe informationfromsmartmetersandby
incorporatingweather-relatedvariables. Thiscooperationtends tomaximize theuseof intermittent
renewable energyandreduce theUKnational energyusageby10%. Therefore, it is expected that
electricitydemandandsupplycouldbepredictedandmanagedinreal timethroughdeeplearning
technologiesandmachines,optimizing loaddispatch,andreducingoperationcosts.
The loadforecastingcanbecategorizedbythe lengthof forecast interval.Althoughthere isno
official categorization in thepower industry, thereare four loadforecasting types [17]: veryshort term
loadforecasting(VSTLF), short termloadforecasting(STLF),mediumtermloadforecasting(MTLF),
andlongtermloadforecasting(LTLF).TheVSTLFtypicallypredicts loadforaperiod less than24h,
STLFpredicts load foraperiodgreater than24huptooneweek,MTLFforecasts loadforaperiod
fromoneweekuptooneyear,andLTLFforecasts loadperformanceforaperiodlonger thanoneyear.
Theloadforecastingtypeischosenbasedonapplicationrequirements.Namely,VSTLFandSTLFare
appliedtoeverydaypowersystemoperationandspotpricecalculation,sotheaccuracyrequirement
ismuchhigher thanfora longtermprediction.TheMTLFandLTLFareusedforpredictionofpower
usageovera longperiodof time,andtheyareoftenreferencedinlong-termcontractswhendetermining
systemcapacity, costsofoperationandsystemmaintenance,andfuturegridexpansionplans. Thus,
if thesmartgridsareintegratedwithahighpercentageofintermittentrenewableenergy, loadforecasting
willbemore intense thanthatof traditionalpowergenerationsourcesduetothegridstability.
Inaddition, the loadforecastingcanbeclassifiedbycalculationmethodintostatisticalmethods
andcomputational intelligence (CI)methods.With recentdevelopments in computational science
andsmartmetering, the traditional load forecastingmethodshavebeengradually replacedbyAI
technology. Thesmartmeters forresidentialbuildingshavebecomeavailableonthemarketaround
2010,andsince then,variousstudiesonSTLFfor residential communitieshavebeenpublished[18,19].
Whencomparedwiththetraditionalstatisticalforecastingmethods,theabilitytoanalyzelargeamounts
ofdata inaveryshort timeframeusingAI technologyhasdisplayedobviousadvantages [10].
Someof frequentlyusedloadforecastmethods include linear regression[5,6,20], autoregressive
methods[7,21], andartificialneuralnetworks [9,22,23]. Furthermore, clusteringmethodswerealso
proposed[24]. In [20,25] similar timesequenceswerematchedwhile in [24] the focuswasoncustomer
classification. A novel approach based on the support vectormachinewas proposed in [26,27].
Theother forecastingmethods, suchasexponential smoothingandKalmanfilters,werealsoapplied
infewstudies [28].Acareful literaturereviewof the latestSTLFmethodcanbefoundin[8]. In [13],
itwas shownthat accuracyofSTLF is influencedbymany factors, suchas temperature, humidity,
windspeed,etc. Inmanystudies, theartificialneuralnetwork(ANN)forecastingmethods[9–11,29]
havebeenproventobemoreaccurate thantraditional statisticalmethods,andaccuracyofdifferent
ANNmethodshasbeen reviewedbymany researchers [1,30]. In [31], amulti-model partitioning
algorithm(MMPA)forshort-termelectricity loadforecastingwasproposed.Accordingto theobtained
experimental results, theMMPAmethod is better thanautoregressive integratedmovingaverage
(ARIMA)method. In [17], authorsused theANN-basedmethod reinforcedbywavelet denoising
algorithm.Thewaveletmethodwasusedtofactorizeelectricity loaddata intosignalswithdifferent
418
Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies
- Title
- Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies
- Authors
- Wei-Chiang Hong
- Ming-Wei Li
- Guo-Feng Fan
- Editor
- MDPI
- Location
- Basel
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-03897-583-0
- Size
- 17.0 x 24.4 cm
- Pages
- 448
- Keywords
- Scheduling Problems in Logistics, Transport, Timetabling, Sports, Healthcare, Engineering, Energy Management
- Category
- Informatik