Seite - 32 - in THE FIRST WORLD WAR - and the End of the Habsburg Monarchy, 1914 – 1918

32 On the Eve (Konopischt) to the south of Prague in order to discuss the situation in the Balkans.47 Franz Ferdinand, who was a relatively consistent proponent of finding a peaceful solu- tion to Balkan issues, requested that a detailed memorandum be drawn up regarding the turbulent European region, giving a precise account of the Austrian assessment of the situation. This memorandum was designed to promote an intensive exchange of views with Berlin. Work immediately began on the document in the Ballhausplatz, resulting in a comprehensive evaluation. First of all, the longstanding conflict with Serbia had to be described, stressing the role of this state as a southern Slav ‘Piedmont’, while at the same time taking into account that successful negotiations had just been conducted with Serbia regarding the sale of shares in the Orient Railway Company, the majority of which were owned by Austria-Hungary and of which only a small proportion were to be sold to Serbia. The memorandum further claimed that there was a risk that negotiations would be held regarding a merging of Serbia and Monte- negro, while the relationship with Romania left little room for manoeuvre, since the support by Bucharest for the Romanians living in Hungary ruled out any prospect of rapprochement. The chiefs of the general staffs of Austria-Hungary and the German Empire were in agreement that Romania could not be counted on in the event of war. Conrad had already expressed the view in light of the cooling relations with Bucharest that it would be necessary to extend the railway network in the direction of Romania and to create border fortifications should a rapid deployment of troops be required. If he and his German counterpart, Helmuth von Moltke, had known that the Romanian King Carol, on the occasion of the visit by Tsar Nicholas II of Russia to Constance on 14 June 1914, had said that Romania would certainly not side with Austria-Hungary in the event of war, the matter would have been completely clear.48 The memorandum concluded that it would be more appropriate to consider Bulgaria  – the same Bulgaria that in the past had shown almost no sign of friendship towards Austria-Hungary. However, this attitude could change in the future. While in Germany, it was felt that Bulgaria would not be able to compensate for the absence of Romania, the view at the Ballhausplatz and in the new Imperial and Royal War Ministry on the Stubenring in Vienna was not so pessimistic. Bulgaria was in urgent need of money after the Balkan wars, and Austria decided to act as an agent in obtaining German loan assistance. To this extent, everything seemed to be running smoothly. The greatest risk, if a new Bal- kan League were to be formed, was that it would turn against Austria-Hungary with the help of Russian support and French funding. If Russia or Serbia were also to find supporters among the peoples of Austria-Hungary, a mood of crisis would inevitably follow. Indeed, this is precisely what did happen  – and this was also by no means a new phenomenon.