Seite - 25 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

1 Science forLossandDamage.FindingsandPropositions 25 mechanismforanylossesanddamagesfundedbypremiumpaymentsofthoseat-risk, viaaclimateattribution-triggeredcapitalisationmechanism(seeproposition4), the most advanced ideas in thecontext of curativemeasureshavebeenarticulatedwith regardtosupportforinvoluntaryclimate-induceddisplacementandforcedmigration. Aclimatedisplacement facility isbeingdiscussedunder theWIMandproposals for approaches toaddressclimate-induceddisplacementhavebeenmade (e.g., through theNansenPrinciplesonClimateChangeandDisplacement (NRC&IDMC2011) and thePeninsulaPrinciplesonClimateDisplacementwithinStates (Displacement Solutions2015). IdentifyingthefinancialcostsassociatedwithsuchadistinctriskandpolicyL&D spaceiscurrentlyextremelydifficult–particularlyas theremitofactionhasnotbeen concretised.Thereare some limitedstudiesextrapolating fromestimatesofclimate impact and adaptation costs. If L&D is framed as dealing with residual impacts after adaptation,modelsusingeconomicoptimality reasoningcalculate impact and option costs in thebillions ofUSdollars; yet, asMarkandya andGonzález-Eguino (2018)find, there is currently lowconfidence regardingdamagecosts, costof adap- tation and residual impacts. Beyond finance considerations, the riskmanagement approachtoL&D—ifframedcomprehensively(withassociatedprinciples,methods and tools)—may indeed embrace someof the other salient perspectives of the dis- course, such as those emphasisingburden sharing and the limits to adaptation, and thushelptoconstituteasystematicplatformforfutureworkof theWIMandbeyond (seechapterbyLopezet al. 2018). Proposition 2 Attributionscienceisadvancingrapidly, leadingtoincreasedunder- standingof thecausalconnectionsbetweenemissions,climate,humansystems,and Loss andDamage.While the science has often been associatedwith responsibility andblame, itsaimis toanalysedriversofchange fundamental to informingactions tominimise,avert, andaddress lossanddamage. Climate change attribution research originally focused on examining drivers of observed changes in global temperature. Attributing losses and damages is much more complex and requires investigating how anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) influencemany other climatic variables apart fromglobal temperature, as well as their influenceon theoceans, cryosphere,biosphere, andhumansystemson arangeoftimescales.Italsorequiresacomparisonoftheinfluenceofanthropogenic emissionsonhazards,withotherpotentialdrivers(forexamplelandusechange,and aerosols),aswellasdriversofexposureandvulnerability.Therefore, this isnotonly aquestionforclimatescientists,butrequiresintegrationofresearchfromanumberof scientificfields.Researchers are steppingup to thisgrandchallengeandhavemade rapid advances, particularly in a new field of climate change attribution research focusingonsingle extremeweather events.Thisnowallows statements tobemade abouthowanthropogenicemissionshave influenced the likelihoodormagnitudeof specificheatwaves,heavyrainfall events,windstorms,anddroughts.Several recent event attribution studies have also demonstrated the influence of GHG emissions on theprobability ofmonetary losses fromfloodingand loss of life fromcold- and heat-relatedevents (seechapterbyJameset al. 2018).