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1 Science forLossandDamage.FindingsandPropositions 25
mechanismforanylossesanddamagesfundedbypremiumpaymentsofthoseat-risk,
viaaclimateattribution-triggeredcapitalisationmechanism(seeproposition4), the
most advanced ideas in thecontext of curativemeasureshavebeenarticulatedwith
regardtosupportforinvoluntaryclimate-induceddisplacementandforcedmigration.
Aclimatedisplacement facility isbeingdiscussedunder theWIMandproposals for
approaches toaddressclimate-induceddisplacementhavebeenmade (e.g., through
theNansenPrinciplesonClimateChangeandDisplacement (NRC&IDMC2011)
and thePeninsulaPrinciplesonClimateDisplacementwithinStates (Displacement
Solutions2015).
IdentifyingthefinancialcostsassociatedwithsuchadistinctriskandpolicyL&D
spaceiscurrentlyextremelydifficult–particularlyas theremitofactionhasnotbeen
concretised.Thereare some limitedstudiesextrapolating fromestimatesofclimate
impact and adaptation costs. If L&D is framed as dealing with residual impacts
after adaptation,modelsusingeconomicoptimality reasoningcalculate impact and
option costs in thebillions ofUSdollars; yet, asMarkandya andGonzález-Eguino
(2018)find, there is currently lowconfidence regardingdamagecosts, costof adap-
tation and residual impacts. Beyond finance considerations, the riskmanagement
approachtoL&D—ifframedcomprehensively(withassociatedprinciples,methods
and tools)—may indeed embrace someof the other salient perspectives of the dis-
course, such as those emphasisingburden sharing and the limits to adaptation, and
thushelptoconstituteasystematicplatformforfutureworkof theWIMandbeyond
(seechapterbyLopezet al. 2018).
Proposition 2 Attributionscienceisadvancingrapidly, leadingtoincreasedunder-
standingof thecausalconnectionsbetweenemissions,climate,humansystems,and
Loss andDamage.While the science has often been associatedwith responsibility
andblame, itsaimis toanalysedriversofchange fundamental to informingactions
tominimise,avert, andaddress lossanddamage.
Climate change attribution research originally focused on examining drivers of
observed changes in global temperature. Attributing losses and damages is much
more complex and requires investigating how anthropogenic greenhouse gases
(GHGs) influencemany other climatic variables apart fromglobal temperature, as
well as their influenceon theoceans, cryosphere,biosphere, andhumansystemson
arangeoftimescales.Italsorequiresacomparisonoftheinfluenceofanthropogenic
emissionsonhazards,withotherpotentialdrivers(forexamplelandusechange,and
aerosols),aswellasdriversofexposureandvulnerability.Therefore, this isnotonly
aquestionforclimatescientists,butrequiresintegrationofresearchfromanumberof
scientificfields.Researchers are steppingup to thisgrandchallengeandhavemade
rapid advances, particularly in a new field of climate change attribution research
focusingonsingle extremeweather events.Thisnowallows statements tobemade
abouthowanthropogenicemissionshave influenced the likelihoodormagnitudeof
specificheatwaves,heavyrainfall events,windstorms,anddroughts.Several recent
event attribution studies have also demonstrated the influence of GHG emissions
on theprobability ofmonetary losses fromfloodingand loss of life fromcold- and
heat-relatedevents (seechapterbyJameset al. 2018).
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima