Seite - 63 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

Chapter3 ObservedandProjectedImpacts fromExtremeWeatherEvents: Implications forLossandDamage LaurensM.Bouwer Abstract This chapter presents current knowledge of observed and projected impacts from extremeweather events, based on recorded events and their losses, as well as studies that project future impacts from anthropogenic climate change. The attribution of past changes in such impacts focuses on the three key drivers: changes in extreme weather hazards that can be due to natural climate variabil- ity and anthropogenic climate change, changes in exposure and vulnerability, and risk reduction efforts. The chapter builds onprevious assessments of attribution of extremeweather events, todriversof changes inweatherhazard, exposureandvul- nerability.Most records of losses fromextremeweather consist of information on monetary losses, while several other types of impacts are underrepresented, com- plicating the assessment of losses anddamages. Studies intodrivers of losses from extremeweathershowthat increasingexposure is themost importantdriver through increasing population and capital assets. Residual losses (after risk reduction and adaptation) fromextremeweatherhavenotyetbeenattributed toanthropogeniccli- matechange.FortheLossandDamagedebate, thisimpliesthatoverall itwillremain difficult to attribute this typeof losses togreenhousegas emissions. For the future, anthropogenic climate change is projected to becomemore important for driving futureweather lossesupward.However, driversofexposureandespeciallychanges invulnerabilitywill interplay.Exposurewill continue to lead to risk increases.Vul- nerability on theother handmaybe further reduced throughdisaster risk reduction and adaptation. This would reduce additional losses and damages from extreme weather.Yet, at the country scale andparticularly in developing countries, there is ampleevidenceofincreasingrisk,whichcallsforsignificantimprovementinclimate riskmanagement efforts. Keywords Extremeweather ·Flood ·Storm ·Losses ·Risk ·Normalisation Attribution L.M.Bouwer (B) ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Hamburg,Germany e-mail: laurens.bouwer@hzg.de L.M.Bouwer Deltares,Delft,TheNetherlands ©TheAuthor(s)2019 R.Mechler et al. (eds.),LossandDamage fromClimateChange,ClimateRisk Management,PolicyandGovernance,https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_3 63