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Chapter3
ObservedandProjectedImpacts
fromExtremeWeatherEvents:
Implications forLossandDamage
LaurensM.Bouwer
Abstract This chapter presents current knowledge of observed and projected
impacts from extremeweather events, based on recorded events and their losses,
as well as studies that project future impacts from anthropogenic climate change.
The attribution of past changes in such impacts focuses on the three key drivers:
changes in extreme weather hazards that can be due to natural climate variabil-
ity and anthropogenic climate change, changes in exposure and vulnerability, and
risk reduction efforts. The chapter builds onprevious assessments of attribution of
extremeweather events, todriversof changes inweatherhazard, exposureandvul-
nerability.Most records of losses fromextremeweather consist of information on
monetary losses, while several other types of impacts are underrepresented, com-
plicating the assessment of losses anddamages. Studies intodrivers of losses from
extremeweathershowthat increasingexposure is themost importantdriver through
increasing population and capital assets. Residual losses (after risk reduction and
adaptation) fromextremeweatherhavenotyetbeenattributed toanthropogeniccli-
matechange.FortheLossandDamagedebate, thisimpliesthatoverall itwillremain
difficult to attribute this typeof losses togreenhousegas emissions. For the future,
anthropogenic climate change is projected to becomemore important for driving
futureweather lossesupward.However, driversofexposureandespeciallychanges
invulnerabilitywill interplay.Exposurewill continue to lead to risk increases.Vul-
nerability on theother handmaybe further reduced throughdisaster risk reduction
and adaptation. This would reduce additional losses and damages from extreme
weather.Yet, at the country scale andparticularly in developing countries, there is
ampleevidenceofincreasingrisk,whichcallsforsignificantimprovementinclimate
riskmanagement efforts.
Keywords Extremeweather 路Flood 路Storm 路Losses 路Risk 路Normalisation
Attribution
L.M.Bouwer (B)
ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Hamburg,Germany
e-mail: laurens.bouwer@hzg.de
L.M.Bouwer
Deltares,Delft,TheNetherlands
漏TheAuthor(s)2019
R.Mechler et al. (eds.),LossandDamage fromClimateChange,ClimateRisk
Management,PolicyandGovernance,https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_3 63
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima