Seite - 117 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

5 Attribution:HowIs ItRelevant forLoss… 117 Box5.1KeyMessages • In the political context of climate negotiations, questions aboutwhether losses and damagescanbeattributedtoanthropogenicclimatechangeareoftenlinkedtoissues of responsibility, blame, and liability. • Attribution science does not aim to establish responsibility or blame, but rather to investigatedriversof change. • Attributionscience isadvancingrapidly,andhaspotential to increaseunderstanding ofhowclimatevariabilityandchangeis influencingslowonsetandextremeweather events, and how this interactswith other drivers of risk, including socio-economic drivers, to influence lossesanddamages. • Over time, someuncertainties in the sciencewill be reduced, as the anthropogenic climatechangesignalbecomesstronger,andunderstandingofclimatevariabilityand changedevelops. • However, someuncertaintieswill not be eliminated.Uncertainty is common in sci- ence, anddoesnotpreventuseful applications inpolicy,butmightdeterminewhich applicationsareappropriate.It is importanttohighlightthat inattributionstudies, the strength of evidence varies substantially betweendifferent kinds of slowonset and extremeweather events, andbetween regions. Policy-makers shouldnot expect the lateremergenceofconclusiveevidenceabout theinfluenceofclimatevariabilityand changeon specific incidences of losses anddamages; and, in particular, shouldnot expect the strengthofevidence tobeequalbetweenevents, andbetweencountries. • Rather thanwaiting for furtherconfidence inattributionstudies, there ispotential to startworkingnowtointegratescienceintopolicyandpractice,tohelpunderstandand tackledriversof lossesanddamages, informingprevention, recovery, rehabilitation, and transformation. Section5.2 summarisesfindings fromour transdisciplinary researchofperspec- tives on attribution inL&Dpolicydiscussions, drawingdirectly onqualitative evi- dence from stakeholder interviews (see Box 5.2). Section 5.3 then provides an overview of sources of evidence about attribution of L&D to climate variability andanthropogenicclimatechange.This isnot restricted tophysicalclimatescience, but also includes other fields of enquirywhich investigate causative links between L&D,climate andweather, andhumanactivity.Section5.4will discuss if andhow suchattributionsciencemightbeappliedtosupportL&Dpolicyandpractice, taking intoaccountpreviousideasfromtheL&Dliterature,andstakeholder interviews(see 5.2), but also drawing on our own conclusions and ideas about potentially fruitful applications.