Seite - 228 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

228 K.vanderGeest et al. Fig.9.2 Temperature change in degrees Celsius per decade from 1951 to 2013. SourceUNEP (2016).NotesTrendsareobtainedbyadjustinga linear trend to inter-annualanomalies (anomalies withrespecttotheaverageoverthe63yearobservationrecord),withnootherfiltering(notremoving anyother scalesofvariability). It is expressed indegreesC/decade Fig.9.3 Coefficientofvariationofrainfallfrom1951to2013(inpercentofthelong-termaverage). SourceUNEP(2016) Fig.9.4 Difference in thenumberofyears that receivedadequate rainfall for sorghumandmillet (1990–2009compared to1950–1969). SourceUNEP(2016) from1951 to2013.Largeareasof thedrylandshave inter-annual rainfallvariability that is±30%of themean. During the1970s andearly 1980s theSahel experienced a long andwidespread drought that was associatedwith a devastating famine (Held et al. 2005; Conway et al. 2009). Trends for the late 20th and early 21st century suggest an increase in the intensity and length of droughts inWestAfrica (IPCC2012), and a decline in rainfall of between 10 and 20%,with rainfall becoming less dependable (Turco et al. 2015). The region also has strong decadal variability, related to swings in ocean temperatures in theNorthAtlantic.Evencontrolling for theeffectofdecadal