Seite - 274 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

274 A.Lopezet al. Theestimationofprecise informationonattributionofdamages to the incremen- tal risk causedbyanthropogenic climate change requires anestimateof the change inhazardprobability that is attributable toanthropogenic climate change.Fromthe point ofviewof thedecision-making frameworksdiscussedabove, this fallswithin the’science-driven’approach.Climatesimulationsareusedtoestimatethelikelihood of the event under current conditions,with the extra requirementof a simulationof thecounterfactualworld, i.e., anestimationof the likelihoodof theeventhadgreen- housegasconcentrationsnot increasedduringthelast100yearsorso.Someclimate scientists argue that the scienceof attributionof climate events could support deci- sions related toobtainingcompensation for damages causedbyattributablenatural disasters, sinceitpotentiallyallowstodistinguishbetweengenuineconsequencesof anthropogenicclimatechangefromclimateeventsthatarearesultofinternalclimate variability (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2011; Peterson et al. 2012).On the other hand, Hulmeetal. (2011)challenges the idea that thescienceofweathereventattribution has a role to play in this context, in particular due to the fact that the estimated changes inattributablerisksarebasedonclimatemodellingexperiments thatcannot providerobustanswers.However,Huggeletal. (2015,2016)arguethateventhough attribution isnotnecessarilya requirement forL&Dpolicies, it ispotentiallyuseful for facilitating amore thematically structured, and constructive policy and justice discussion. The chapter byWallimann-Helmer (2018) in this book discusses these issues indetail. Forthedesignandimplementationofburdensharingorcompensationinstruments (technical, financial andcapacitybuilding) anestimationof the costs formanaging lossesanddamagesisneeded.Thiswouldrelyona“policy-driven”approach, taking asa startingpointwhat are the societal goals (whichvalues toprotect), and thenan estimation of the resources needed to do so. Principles to distribute the burden of managing losses and damages include principles that take into consideration the causationofoutcomes thatneedtobemanaged(e.g. thepolluterpaysprinciple)and principles that donot take causation into account (e.g. the ability topayprinciple). The informationgained throughascience-drivenapproachcanhelp toapproximate the portion of the hazard that is of anthropogenic origin, whichwould inform the discussionon thesecompensationprinciples. Importantly, this informationmaynot needtobepreciseorevent-linked:thegrowingunderstandingoftheoveralllikelihood of anthropogenic footprint in L&Dcould be enough to justify burden-sharing, for example ifbigemitters recogniseanoverallhigher responsibility toprovidesupport than lowemitters, irrespective of precise event-attribution (see also the chapter by SimlingerandMayer (2018)on legal issues).