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274 A.Lopezet al.
Theestimationofprecise informationonattributionofdamages to the incremen-
tal risk causedbyanthropogenic climate change requires anestimateof the change
inhazardprobability that is attributable toanthropogenic climate change.Fromthe
point ofviewof thedecision-making frameworksdiscussedabove, this fallswithin
the’science-driven’approach.Climatesimulationsareusedtoestimatethelikelihood
of the event under current conditions,with the extra requirementof a simulationof
thecounterfactualworld, i.e., anestimationof the likelihoodof theeventhadgreen-
housegasconcentrationsnot increasedduringthelast100yearsorso.Someclimate
scientists argue that the scienceof attributionof climate events could support deci-
sions related toobtainingcompensation for damages causedbyattributablenatural
disasters, sinceitpotentiallyallowstodistinguishbetweengenuineconsequencesof
anthropogenicclimatechangefromclimateeventsthatarearesultofinternalclimate
variability (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2011; Peterson et al. 2012).On the other hand,
Hulmeetal. (2011)challenges the idea that thescienceofweathereventattribution
has a role to play in this context, in particular due to the fact that the estimated
changes inattributablerisksarebasedonclimatemodellingexperiments thatcannot
providerobustanswers.However,Huggeletal. (2015,2016)arguethateventhough
attribution isnotnecessarilya requirement forL&Dpolicies, it ispotentiallyuseful
for facilitating amore thematically structured, and constructive policy and justice
discussion. The chapter byWallimann-Helmer (2018) in this book discusses these
issues indetail.
Forthedesignandimplementationofburdensharingorcompensationinstruments
(technical, financial andcapacitybuilding) anestimationof the costs formanaging
lossesanddamagesisneeded.Thiswouldrelyona“policy-driven”approach, taking
asa startingpointwhat are the societal goals (whichvalues toprotect), and thenan
estimation of the resources needed to do so. Principles to distribute the burden of
managing losses and damages include principles that take into consideration the
causationofoutcomes thatneedtobemanaged(e.g. thepolluterpaysprinciple)and
principles that donot take causation into account (e.g. the ability topayprinciple).
The informationgained throughascience-drivenapproachcanhelp toapproximate
the portion of the hazard that is of anthropogenic origin, whichwould inform the
discussionon thesecompensationprinciples. Importantly, this informationmaynot
needtobepreciseorevent-linked:thegrowingunderstandingoftheoveralllikelihood
of anthropogenic footprint in L&Dcould be enough to justify burden-sharing, for
example ifbigemitters recogniseanoverallhigher responsibility toprovidesupport
than lowemitters, irrespective of precise event-attribution (see also the chapter by
SimlingerandMayer (2018)on legal issues).
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima