Seite - 307 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

12 IntegratedDisasterRiskManagementandAdaptation 307 Fig.12.7 Steps taken inDynamicAdaptivePathwaysPlanning (DAPP) Within theDAPPapproach, a plan is conceptualised as a series of actions over time (pathways). The essence is the proactive planning forflexible adaptationover time, inresponsetohowthefutureactuallyunfolds.TheDAPPapproachstartsfrom thepremise thatpolicies/decisionshaveadesign lifeandmight fail as theoperating conditions change (Kwadijk et al. 2010). A risk assessment can illuminate such adaptation tippingpoint conditions, as such theycanbeused to identifyup towhat changing conditions (e.g. sea level rise) ameasure can reach apreferred risk level. Once actions fail, additional or other actions are needed to achieve objectives, and a seriesofpathwaysemerge; at predetermined triggerpoints thecoursecanchange while still achieving the objectives. By evaluating different pathways, considering path-dependency of actions and visualising them in a pathwaysmap, an adaptive plan can be designed, that includes short-term actions and long-term options (see Fig. 12.8).Cost-benefit analysis (Sect. 12.3) canbeused toevaluatepathways.The planismonitoredforsignals that indicatewhenthenextstepofapathwayshouldbe implementedorwhether reassessmentof theplan isneeded. It isnotonly important to identifywhat tomonitor but also how to analyse it. From a policy perspective it seems evident to select signposts that are related to normor designvalues, since these are the values upon which the policies are evaluated. However, alternative indicators(i.e.averageriverflowinsummerhalfyear, insteadofthe1:10yearreturn flow)—not necessarily policy related—can be used additionally to get timely and reliable signals for adaptation action.Different levels of assessment arepossible to design pathways, from qualitative expert-based pathways tomore comprehensive quantitativemodel-basedpathways.