Seite - 355 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

14 IntegratedAssessment for IdentifyingClimateFinanceNeeds… 355 0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% 2500% 3000% 3500% 4000% 202020302040205020602070208020902100 0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% 2500% 3000% 3500% 4000% 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 MENA SSA SASIA CHINA EASIA LACA (a) (b) Fig.14.4 Residual costs as percentage of adaptation costs for the case of a) low damages-high discount rate;b) highdamages-lowdiscount rate (inbillion2005US) Lossesacceleratewithgreaterwarming(limitedevidence,highagreement),but few quantitative estimates havebeen completed for additionalwarming around3 °Cor above. Ataregional levelBoselloetal. (2010)findthat theeffectsof increasing temper- aturearegreatest forSouthAsia, followedbyEastAsiaandSubSaharanAfricaand thenby theMiddleEast (MDE).Thesectormost sensitive to temperature increases isagriculture, followedbytourism.Costsrelatedtoenergydeclinewith temperature in this range (as reduced demand for heating dominates the increased demand for cooling).Onecanexpectthereforeadecreaseinthetemperaturetargetto2°Coreven 1.5 °C to result in residual costs that are correspondingly lower than the estimates given inTable14.4. Weconclude this discussion bynoting that these estimates are indicative of the results one gets from IAMs.Othermodelswill generate different numbers, butwe believethatthebroadconclusionsdrawnfromthereviewcarriedoutherewillremain valid.InthenextsectionwefocusontworelevantaspectsoftheIAMliteraturefurther to seewhy the results for climatedamagesand residual costs canvary somuch. 14.4 DiscussionofResults Thedebateonthecostsofclimatechangeandfinancegenerally,aswellasspecifically forL&Discomplexandhasseveraldimensions,manyofwhicharenotwellinformed bytheIAManalysisofresidualdamages.Toputthediscussionintocontext,estimates ofdamages, adaptationcosts,L&Dandcurrent availablefinanceareworthnoting. Theestimatesofadaptationcostsfordevelopingcountrieshavebeenestimatedin anumberof recent IAMstudies, summarised in theUNEPAdaptationGapReport