Page - 355 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
Image of the Page - 355 -
Text of the Page - 355 -
14 IntegratedAssessment for IdentifyingClimateFinanceNeeds… 355
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
3500%
4000%
202020302040205020602070208020902100 0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
3500%
4000%
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 MENA
SSA
SASIA
CHINA
EASIA
LACA
(a) (b)
Fig.14.4 Residual costs as percentage of adaptation costs for the case of a) low damages-high
discount rate;b) highdamages-lowdiscount rate (inbillion2005US)
Lossesacceleratewithgreaterwarming(limitedevidence,highagreement),but few
quantitative estimates havebeen completed for additionalwarming around3 °Cor
above.
Ataregional levelBoselloetal. (2010)findthat theeffectsof increasing temper-
aturearegreatest forSouthAsia, followedbyEastAsiaandSubSaharanAfricaand
thenby theMiddleEast (MDE).Thesectormost sensitive to temperature increases
isagriculture, followedbytourism.Costsrelatedtoenergydeclinewith temperature
in this range (as reduced demand for heating dominates the increased demand for
cooling).Onecanexpectthereforeadecreaseinthetemperaturetargetto2°Coreven
1.5 °C to result in residual costs that are correspondingly lower than the estimates
given inTable14.4.
Weconclude this discussion bynoting that these estimates are indicative of the
results one gets from IAMs.Othermodelswill generate different numbers, butwe
believethatthebroadconclusionsdrawnfromthereviewcarriedoutherewillremain
valid.InthenextsectionwefocusontworelevantaspectsoftheIAMliteraturefurther
to seewhy the results for climatedamagesand residual costs canvary somuch.
14.4 DiscussionofResults
Thedebateonthecostsofclimatechangeandfinancegenerally,aswellasspecifically
forL&Discomplexandhasseveraldimensions,manyofwhicharenotwellinformed
bytheIAManalysisofresidualdamages.Toputthediscussionintocontext,estimates
ofdamages, adaptationcosts,L&Dandcurrent availablefinanceareworthnoting.
Theestimatesofadaptationcostsfordevelopingcountrieshavebeenestimatedin
anumberof recent IAMstudies, summarised in theUNEPAdaptationGapReport
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima