Seite - 404 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

404 R.Mechler et al. Before thecycle is initialised, thefirst step requires that theorganisation(s)driv- ing thedevelopment process (includingbut not limited toNGOsandgovernments) analyse the situation to identify the development change expected, ensuring that it will addressaclearfloodrisk.Thenext step is toassesshowdevelopmentandflood risk are linked. This is done togetherwith asmany stakeholders as possible. This assessment is designed to explore the current situation, and identify stakeholder’s roles and the potential for change. Based on the outcome of this assessment, the organisations select a development plan in linewith stakeholders’ priorities. This plan will incorporate a suite of solutions to improve community flood resilience. One or more solutions are then chosen as the ones to implement, emphasising a practical (‘learning-by-doing’) approach. Those involved in the processmonitor and evaluate activities to track how they unfold,testtheassumptionsuponwhichthechoicesweremadeandseeiftheydeliver results as planned, and to capture lessons that are fed back into assessment.At the centreofthediagramisaniterativelearningprocess,whichworkscyclicallyasaloop. This process emphasizes continuous learning and innovation among stakeholders (asopposed to the implementingorganisation); theorganisation interactswithin the ‘adaptive’management cycleandultimatelybringsabout lastingchange. 17.4.3 DetectingandSupporting theManagementofRisk andResilienceatScaleAroundaLearning Framework FortheLossandDamagediscourseandtheworkreportedoninthischapter,wethus propose to employ a learning framework building on risk detection and resilience management.Learning andawareness is fundamental to better understand risk and resilience.Theadaptivemanagementframework,asitco-generatesinsightfromlocal toglobal scales, canbeuseful to identify theneedforactionacross timeandascale fromincremental (traditionalDRRandclimatechangeadaptation) totransformative (fundamentally different livelihood strategies supported by novel policy options), whenfacedwithrisksbeyondthelimitsofadaptation.Figure17.5links theadaptive learningcycle toa representationof risks todayaswell asof risksatdifferent levels ofwarming. The left panel in exemplary fashion visualises risks and risk tolerance (rang- ingfromacceptable totolerabletointolerable)fordifferent levelsofglobalwarming (completeboxes).Theblackarrowsshowtheincrementstoriskwithclimaticchange as a driver. The dashed boxes identify parts of the risk that can further be reduced either by conventionalDRRorCCAoptions (blue-green arrows) or transformative measuresaspart of responses linked toLossandDamage (whitearrows).The right panel furthershowstheadaptivemanagementcycleasfacilitatingsingle-doubleand triple-loop learning. It suggests, that in the short-term incremental adjustments to riskandresiliencecanbetakenby(i)monitoringtheeffectivenessofexistingpolicy