Seite - 419 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

17 SupportingClimateRiskManagementatScale… 419 Scenarios Ad-hoc response – business as usual (reactive) Engineered safety (corrective) Resilience under uncertainty (prospective) Understanding the past Projecting the future - 0.5 1.0 1.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 plus Clim ate con trib u1o n plu sc lim ate & soc io- eco no mi cc on ntr ibu 1o ns Recorded losses Projectedannualaveragerisk Modelleddecadal risk Recordeddecadal risk Fig.17.13 Prospective forensics for projecting flood risk in Peru. Source French andMechler (2017) learningfrompastexperience inorder to identifyfutureresiliencepathways. Itwent beyond analysing the discrete events of 1997–98 and 2015–16 to understand the evolutionof thekeyriskdrivershazard,exposureandparticularlyvulnerabilityover the past and the future using a scenario approach. This forward-looking analysis, termedprojective forensics, thus linkedretroactivePERCassessmentwitha future- orientedscenarioapproachfor riskandresiliencebuildingforfloodrisk inPeru.As guidingquestiontheteamaskedwas:Giventheriskdriversandactionsimplemented or considered, howwould future risk inPeruevolveover the short tomedium-term horizon-up to2030ascompared to todayandwhatadditionalactions to take? Buildingon risk projections givenby aprominent flood riskmodel (Ward et al. 2013) toalsoconsider thesocio-economicportion, trends identified in thepastwere used to project the future using different scenarios as detected locally: (i)Ad hoc response (reactive)-only prioritising DRR when an event is predicted/imminent; (ii)Engineeredsafety (corrective)-investing inhard infrastructureprojects; and (iii) Resilienceunderuncertainty(prospective)-investingheavilyinplanning,zoningand relocation.AsshowninFig.17.13,futureriskassociatedwiththesepathwaysdiffers markedly. None of these scenario projections is likely to exactly see implementa- tion, yet theyprovide aprojection space, and thusmay, as one application, support gameful policyexercises, help to identify andmotivate further actions todayand in the short-medium-termforbuilding resilience.