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17 SupportingClimateRiskManagementatScale… 419
Scenarios
Ad-hoc response –
business as
usual (reactive)
Engineered safety (corrective)
Resilience under uncertainty
(prospective)
Understanding the past Projecting the future
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
plus Clim ate con
trib
u1o
n
plu sc
lim ate &
soc io-
eco
no mi cc
on
ntr ibu
1o ns
Recorded losses
Projectedannualaveragerisk
Modelleddecadal risk
Recordeddecadal risk
Fig.17.13 Prospective forensics for projecting flood risk in Peru. Source French andMechler
(2017)
learningfrompastexperience inorder to identifyfutureresiliencepathways. Itwent
beyond analysing the discrete events of 1997–98 and 2015–16 to understand the
evolutionof thekeyriskdrivershazard,exposureandparticularlyvulnerabilityover
the past and the future using a scenario approach. This forward-looking analysis,
termedprojective forensics, thus linkedretroactivePERCassessmentwitha future-
orientedscenarioapproachfor riskandresiliencebuildingforfloodrisk inPeru.As
guidingquestiontheteamaskedwas:Giventheriskdriversandactionsimplemented
or considered, howwould future risk inPeruevolveover the short tomedium-term
horizon-up to2030ascompared to todayandwhatadditionalactions to take?
Buildingon risk projections givenby aprominent flood riskmodel (Ward et al.
2013) toalsoconsider thesocio-economicportion, trends identified in thepastwere
used to project the future using different scenarios as detected locally: (i)Ad hoc
response (reactive)-only prioritising DRR when an event is predicted/imminent;
(ii)Engineeredsafety (corrective)-investing inhard infrastructureprojects; and (iii)
Resilienceunderuncertainty(prospective)-investingheavilyinplanning,zoningand
relocation.AsshowninFig.17.13,futureriskassociatedwiththesepathwaysdiffers
markedly. None of these scenario projections is likely to exactly see implementa-
tion, yet theyprovide aprojection space, and thusmay, as one application, support
gameful policyexercises, help to identify andmotivate further actions todayand in
the short-medium-termforbuilding resilience.
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Title
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Subtitle
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Authors
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Publisher
- Springer Open
- Date
- 2019
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Size
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Pages
- 580
- Keywords
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Categories
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima